2018-12-16 — blogspot.com
What only weeks ago appeared a rather straightforward meeting is now a pivotal juncture for the Federal Open Market Committee. With low unemployment and relatively robust household and business expenditures, the Fed has been widely expected to raise rates next Wednesday. It may now be a close call. But, then again, the Fed may not yet appreciate the seriousness of what is unfolding in the markets. They're in a real predicament, along with central bankers around the world. They all waited way too long to begin normalizing monetary policy. Today, normalization has barely even commenced, and yet the Bubble they nurtured has already begun to deflate.
I don't want to imply that resurgent Chinese Credit growth and/or even a more dovish Fed wouldn't matter. I just believe at this point the bursting global Bubble is increasingly beyond resuscitation. A bold statement, I fully appreciate. But Fear is rapidly supplanting greed in "Core" U.S. securities markets. The "Core" has seen de-risking/deleveraging dynamics attain important momentum. Latent "Core" fragilities are being exposed. And the further the global Bubble deflates, the greater the scope of monetary stimulus required to re-energize broad-based securities market inflation. I fully expect more QE. But it will come in a crisis backdrop. I'll presume the first few Trillion or so will, at best, accommodate deleveraging.
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