... is there any evidence of persistence here? Or is there any evidence that this month's headline reading was even material in the first place? A quick answer to the second question requiring no deeper analysis is...

No. There's no evidence that this was even material... In other words, the rally was based on the idea that the Fed might not tighten as fast or as much if inflation is really slowing. It's perfectly obvious to us that it isn't.


There's simply no reason in the CPI data to believe that the Fed will back off from its tightening regimen. The longer the market stays high and the more it rises, the greater the risk of a severe adjustment.

Comments: Be the first to add a comment

add a comment | go to forum thread