The Monthly Treasury Statement provides an obvious warning sign of things ahead. Social security tax collections are running soft... If wages rose 2.7% and social security tax collections rose just 2.2%, that would mean only one thing. There must have been fewer jobs.  We know that the BLS doesn't see it that way. Maybe the wage inflation rate is overstated. And maybe there's an explanation I had not thought of. But this data at least raises questions about the reported strength of the jobs data.


Under its balance sheet "normalization" program, that I liken to a medieval bloodletting, the Fed may be reducing the supply of money into a weakening economy. That supply of money, aka liquidity, is the money that fuels demand for stocks, and supports stock prices. Less money must ultimately result in lower prices, the present margin driven rally notwithstanding.

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