Public Model 3 tracker information suggests that Tesla may build about 7,000 to 8,000 units in Q1. This is far below management guidance and analyst expectations. Furthermore, considering the lead times and logistics involved, we suspect that this will translate to slightly over 7,000 deliveries. Despite the already low expectations, we are skeptical that the market is prepared for this low a number for Model 3... [plus] Tesla is staring at a very serious international sales collapse for Q1...''


Based on the most current data, we believe Tesla is very far from the guided 100K per year run rate (or about 25,000 units per quarter) for Model S and Model X.


Combining this with estimated 7,000 Model 3 shipments, we see Tesla deliveries in the range of 25,000 to 27,000. In other words, Tesla deliveries could fall below Q4 2017 levels in spite of the Model 3 ramp.

The slow Model 3 ramp with severe quality issues along with Model S and Model Y weak demand and shipment fall are now pointing to potentially a $1B loss for Tesla in Q1.

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