2018-02-01 — wolfstreet.com
Over the next six months, the debt will grow by about 3%. Unless a miracle happens very quickly, the debt will likely grow faster over the next five years due to the tax cuts than over the past five years. But over the past five years, the gross national debt already surged nearly 25%, or by $4.1 trillion.
The bond market is barely starting to do the math.
This comes at the precise time when the Fed is unwinding its QE. It's reducing its pile of Treasury Securities by up to $36 billion during Q1 and by up to $54 billion in Q2. In addition, it will also allow MBS to roll off its balance sheet.
Is the Treasury market already figuring out the answer, given this surge in supply? Will some frazzled folks start buying gold and unload Treasuries? The answer is that new investors need to be lured into the market with higher yields. Which means lower prices. And this will hurt existing investors.
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