``The trio calculated a risk index based on the Shiller price-earnings ratio (the price of S&P 500 stocks divided by the average of 10 years of earnings, adjusted for inflation), the US ISM manufacturing index, unemployment (very low), the bond yield curve, and core inflation. The resultant "GS Bear Market Indicator" is currently flashing at 67%. The indicator typically hits highs right before a bear market in US stocks appears... Historically, when the indicator is at 67%, there is an 88% chance of stocks falling into a bear market in two years' time, the Goldman analysts say.''

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