A new report predicts New York City apartment vacancy rates will soar to more than 11% by the end of next year. The scenario, which some local housing analysts rejected, would mean a grim reckoning for landlords.

The forecast, by Ten-X Commercial, an online marketplace for real estate, said rents will slide as thousands of apartments in new buildings come on the market. It noted that the rate of job growth, a driver of the rental market, already has begun to slow.

New York's vacancy rate, typically in the low single digits, is 3.8%, below the national rate of 4.4%...


The report put New York City at the No. 1 position among "top sell markets," where owners of multifamily properties "might consider selling" because of the prospect of declining owner incomes. Nearly 10,000 new apartments in large buildings--those with at least 40 units--have hit the market since 2016, a total that is due to exceed 40,000 by the end of 2018, according to the report.

Rents, after landlord concessions, already are falling, the report noted, and it predicted that rents will suffer average annual declines of 2.7% through 2020. Owner operating income, or income after subtracting operating expenses, will decline by an average of 4.5% through 2020, the report said.

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