Remember, a "house price recovery" and fundamental, "housing market recovery" are two completely different things. Even after seven years of ZIRP and trillions of government debt and Fed money printing aimed largely at US housing, there is little evidence that a fundamental, end-user, shelter-buyer instigated, "housing market recovery" has occurred.


I am confident in my data and models that aim to a sudden inflection point, soon, when high-frequency releases such as existing home sales and prices, builder new home sales and prices, pending sales, et al will hit a year-over-year comp wall, which will lead to a string of headline declines through year-end.

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