``... based on the "psychological" cycle of the market, the bull market that began in 1980 is not yet complete... the long-term bullish trend line remains and the cycle-oscillator is only half-way through a long-term cycle. Furthermore, on a Fibonacci-retracement basis, a 61.8% retracement would current intersect with the long-term bullish trend-line around 1000 suggesting the next downturn could indeed be a nasty one. But again, this is only based on the assumption the long-term full market cycle has not been completed as of yet. '' -- This may be true, if only because the Fed has extended the cycle with its extraordinary support since 2008....

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