2017-02-24cnbc.com

Le Pen has relied on [comparisons to the mild market reaction to Brexit] as a basis for rallying support during her campaigning, saying: "They told us that Brexit would be a catastrophe, that the stock markets would crash ... The reality is that none of that happened."... "Make no mistake, there is the world of difference between tearing up bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, and, unwinding a monetary union as far reaching in scope as the EMU (economic and monetary union) project," Deutsche Bank said in a note Tuesday. "It is the difference between a benign global risk event and something that has the potential to go beyond a 'Lehman's moment'.

...

Investment bank Lehman Brothers is responsible for the U.S.'s largest ever bankruptcy filing, triggering the start of the 2008 financial crisis. It held assets of $600 billion -- a fraction of the estimated $46 trillion at risk under a break-up of the EMU.

While central banks could be expected to step in to secure the system, as they did during the 2008 crash, the long lead times and multiple legal obstacles of an EMU break-up would do little to manage the immediate aftermath of such a wide-reaching crash, said Deutsche Bank.

...

The likelihood of a French referendum on its membership of the EU was called further into question Wednesday when independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is currently seen in second place to Le Pen in first round opinion polls, formed an alliance with Democratic Movement leader Francois Bayrou.



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