2017-01-06 — minyanville.com
The biggest problem with "reflation" is that it doesn't live up to what the word is supposed to mean. That has been true in each of the past attempts at it, but is even more the case in this latest one. Yet, to hear it described is as if we are the verge of an explosion in growth unparalleled at least for the past decade. If that were true, we would expect to find widespread, broad confirmation that current conditions are threatening to surpass those past instances.
The specific disaster 2014-16 may well be over, and in some respects it surely is, but the overall "dollar" problem is not. That, to me, is the big difference between "reflation" so far in 2017 and that which greeted the start of 2014. Three years ago there was far more registered optimism (if still brief) about an overall end to the crisis that began back in August 2007. This time, all these markets, including currencies, seem to better appreciate the reality of it all; there is a vast difference between pause and conclusion. True reflation would be the latter, but that's just not indicated anywhere but in the "news."
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