If the Federal Reserve is hanging its policymaking hat on the August jobs number, then it's likely to be disappointed and unmotivated to raise rates. In large part, that's because the month has been tied for the worst of the year for job creation during the post-recession recovery and the noisiest in terms of how much the initial number differs from the final revision two months later.

... the average initially reported August nonfarm payrolls number during the period was just 87,700. Moreover, the typical August report over the past five years has missed market expectations by 52,000, according to Joseph LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist. And if that's not enough, nine of the last 12 Augusts have missed expectations, with an average downside surprise of 46,000.

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