2016-07-19wsj.com

The two economists -- Guglielmo Barone and Sauro Mocetti of the Bank of Italy -- compared data on Florentine taxpayers in 1427 against tax data in 2011. Because Italian surnames are highly regional and distinctive, they could compare the income of families with a certain surname today, to those with the same surname in 1427. They found that the occupations, income and wealth of those distant ancestors with the same surname can help predict the occupation, income and wealth of their descendants today.

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They find strong evidence that socioeconomic status is incredibly persistent. The wealthiest surnames in Florence today belong to families that, in 1429, were members of the shoemakers' guild -- at the 97th percentile of income. Descendants of members of the silk guild and descendants of attorneys -- both at the 93rd percentile in 1427 -- are among the wealthiest families today.

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It's no surprise that wealth can be inherited or that one's parents play a large role in determining your social status. Other research has found that descendants of Japan's samurai -- 140 years after the end of the order -- remain elites in Japan. The economist Gregory Clark at the University of California, Davis, has written a book "The Son Also Rises" showing how wealth and status can persist for centuries.

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"The paper is about economic mobility (or persistence), that is whether the rich remain the rich," the economists wrote in an e-mail from Mr. Mocetti, "But this does not necessarily imply that they are getting ever richer. Therefore there is not a direct relation with the Piketty argument (increasing inequality over time)."

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The economists say their evidence suggests persistence is somewhat highest for the wealthiest, which they interpret as evidence for "the existence of a glass floor that protects descendants of the upper class from falling down the economic ladder."

Trump evidence for this effect in the U.S., perhaps?



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