2016-07-01forbes.com

Japan is increasingly being held out as a model for China's future, and in that sense, the failure of ‘Abenomics' should be seen as very bad news indeed.

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Since around 2010, China's overall debt has grown faster than its nominal growth rate, which is why some think it is already displaying signs of a ‘Japan Syndrome' in which growth will only be supported by taking on more total debt, whether this is due to deficit funded government expenditure or expanded private credit.

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What is clear is that Japan's overall level of debt is higher than China's, so it may be some time before China runs out of room... if economists look to the long term and can only find Japan as a suitable example for China to follow, then that is not a prospectus towards optimism but managed decline.



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