2016-06-09theguardian.com

Any chance Turkey could join the EU by 2020, as Brexit campaigners have asserted, went up in smoke on Wednesday after the country's president, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, signed a draconian new law that in effect demolishes any notion that his country is a fully functioning, western-style democracy.

EU rules dating to 1993, known as the Copenhagen criteria, insist all applicant states must adhere to a system of democratic governance and uphold other basic principles, such as the rule of law, human rights, freedom of speech, and protection of minorities. Turkey is struggling to meet these standards.

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By signing the new law, ErdoÄŸan, who has dubbed the EU a "Christian club", has signalled the end of any realistic chance of Turkey joining the union for the foreseeable future. Critics say he may also have sounded the death knell for Turkey's secular democracy and set the stage for intensified armed conflict with Kurdish groups.

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Yet the new law, while officially justified as vital for the fight against terrorism, is widely seen as opening the way for ErdoÄŸan's contentious proposal to amend Turkey's constitution and create a powerful executive presidency, which he will hold. The changes require a two-thirds parliamentary majority in favour.

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ErdoÄŸan's latest actions place more pressure on the already shaky migrant deal. If it collapses -- and Turkey is threatening to scrap it -- the EU will have even less incentive to advance accession negotiations. Leading EU countries such as France and Germany strongly oppose Turkish membership and have in any case indicated they could ultimately use their veto, if necessary, to prevent it.



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