Implode-o-Meter News - Recession May Loom for Next U.S. President

No matter who is elected to the White House in November, the next president will probably face a recession. The 83-month-old expansion is already the fourth-longest in more than 150 years and starting to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build.
... The history of cyclical fluctuations suggests that the "odds are significantly better than 50-50 that we will have a recession within the next three years," according to former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, puts the probability of a downturn during that time frame at about two in three.
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With growth so slow -- it clocked in at a mere 0.5 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter -- it wouldn't take that much to tip the economy into a recession.
"It's like a bicycle that's going too slowly. All it takes is a little puff of wind to knock it over," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for consultants IHS Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts.

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Recession May Loom for Next U.S. President