Greece's debt crisis looks familiar, but consequences may be worse

Even then, much of the heavy lifting was put off until the new programme's first quarterly review -- including the politically combustible issue of debt relief. As if to underline how ephemeral the deal was, the International Monetary Fund made clear it was not participating and would put off any decision on whether to join until it was certain Mr Tsipras, who had become the first leader of a developed country to default on an IMF payment, would live up to his commitments.

That first quarterly review has now stretched into two additional quarters, and the three-dimensional stand-off between Athens, Berlin and the IMF has only deepened.

While the IMF has demanded a restructuring of Greece's debts, Germany has suddenly decided that no debt relief is needed at all. Still, it has insisted the IMF participate anyway.

Meanwhile, the IMF has decided the agreement reached in July was badly constructed and should have lower budget surplus targets.

As for Mr Tsipras, he has returned to an angry, defensive crouch, railing against outside forces.

There is little political capacity in Athens to push through additional reforms or spending cuts even if Mr Tsipras wanted to.

"Europe's politicians have been distracted with other challenges and markets have become complacent about the inherent risks in Greece's new bailout," said Mujtaba Rahman, head of European analysis at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy. "But if Berlin doesn't revise its approach, this is going to blow up in everyone's faces."