2016-01-01telegraph.co.uk

The increase in Africa's population alone is set to be 1.3 billion by 2050, about two-and-a-half times the entire population of the EU today. Put another way, the number of people in Africa and western Asia is expected to increase by over 110,000 every single day for decades to come.

Such figures put into perspective a crisis caused by the arrival of several thousand migrants a day. What we have seen in recent months is only a hint of what might happen next, mere gusts of wind before the approach of a hurricane.

The implications for European countries are immense and clear. First, it is obvious that any approach signalling an open door to migration, as in the case of Germany in recent months, will rapidly prove to be unsustainable. That means it is better not to send that signal in the first place, a rare but major blunder by Angela Merkel. There need to be strict limits on migrant numbers from now on.

Second, the Schengen zone can only survive at all if there is a massive strengthening of its external borders -- otherwise one country after another will close its own borders, not for a few days at a time, but permanently.

Third, Europeans will need to do much more to promote stability, save failed states and avert huge outflows of people within parts of Africa itself, as well as in the Middle East. That means not shying away from intervention abroad in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan, but learning how to intervene more effectively.



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