2015-10-08bloomberg.com

Lower oil prices were roundly celebrated as a tailwind for global growth... But strategists at Credit Suisse believe that so far, the global economy has seen only the storm from lower crude, not the rainbow that follows... The net effect of this development, according to their calculations, has turned out to be a 0.2 percent hit to the global economy.

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"The problem is that commodity-related capex accounts for circa 30 percent of global capex (with oil capex down 13 percent and mining capex down 31 percent in the past 12 months)," wrote the strategists, "and thus the fall in U.S. and global commodity capex and opex has taken at least circa 0.8 percent off U.S. GDP growth in the first half 2015 and circa 1 percent off global GDP growth over the last year."

Garthwaite and his group highlight three other channels through which soft oil prices have adversely affected the American economy: employment, wages, and dividend income.



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