Rickards: Oil -- The good, the bad and the ugly

``In the long run, lower oil prices are good for consumers and good for real growth. But in the short run, they are bad for producers, disastrous for junk bond holders and possibly misleading for Fed policy. This year could be a rough ride as the layoffs pile up and the bad debts roll in. It will be even worse if the Fed misreads the tea leaves and raises rates as they have threatened to do.''