2013-06-14albawaba.com

It's curious to hear economists like ex-Goldman Sachs chief Jim O'Neill talking about the bond market having the same feel as in 1994 when the Fed also tightened monetary policy, but it is just not going to happen this time.

Why? Because the world is addicted to the crack cocaine of cheap money and the global economy will collapse in a heap if it is taken away.

What we are seeing at the moment is a brief flirtation with this idea by the Fed. We are already witnessing the only too predictable outcome of a squeeze in global bond and equity markets.

Of course it will have to hit Wall Street harder for the hawks to back off. Then there will be another rally

...

We can only hope that the omnipotent Fed has thought all this through but we don't see an exact parallel with 1994.

The size of the excess is so much bigger it suggests a far bigger impact on asset valuations and the far greater interconnection of global markets will mean far more contagion.



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