Relevant:
- Initial Claims Drop 16,000 To Lowest Weekly Level Since 2007, Economists Miss Again
- Beneath the Headline Numbers, December Retail Sales Worst in 20 Years
- Pending Home Sales Hit New Record Low
- January Job Gains Were Right On Trend, But Not Enough To Shrink Unemployment and Stop Fed Printing
- August 2012 Pending Home Sales A Little Soft
2013-02-03 — econintersect.com
The news media reported yesterday that the NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for December was a huge miss, falling far short of economists' consensus expectations. This was based on the seasonally adjusted data, which is frequently misleading because the statistical manipulation often obscures the real trend. I reviewed the actual, not seasonally adjusted data. It was at the low end of the growth trend of the past 2 years, but still up 4.9% year to year. The month to month drop was slightly greater than normal for December, but is was not a significant deviation from the trend. Therefore, calling it a "huge miss" was misleading.
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