Relevant:
- Nonfarm payrolls should fall by 377,000 (But they won't)
- Payrolls Plunge By 95K, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Private Jobs Up 64K, U-6 Shoots Up To 17.1% From 16.7%
- Withholding Tax Indication May Be Wrong But BLS Data is Worse
- The June Non-farm Payrolls Report
- Something Strange Is Going On With Nonfarm Payrolls
2012-07-30 — wallstreetexaminer.com
The BLS jobs data is based on payrolls for the week including the 12th day of the month. During that week, the real year to year increase in withholding taxes was 1.5%. To estimate the July headline payrolls number, multiplying July 2011 non farm payrolls of 131.407 million x 101.5% = 133.378 million. That would be an increase of 290,000 jobs versus the June number.
With everyone talking about how weak the economy is, that would be a big positive surprise. Will the number actually come in that strong?
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