2012-07-12caseyresearch.com

Petronas is buying Calgary-based Progress Energy Resources (T.PRQ) for C$4.8 billion in cash. Including convertible debt the deal is valued at about C$5.5 billion... So the company is spending billions of dollars to acquire 1.9 trillion cubic feet of proven and probable gas reserves... but there is no guarantee that they will be able to export any of that gas in the foreseeable future.

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LNG in Asia is currently worth between $17 and $18 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) -- six to seven times the price of natural gas in North America.

That price difference is precisely why Petronas is maneuvering to buy reserves in North America. The gamble is simply worth its while -- if Petronas is able to build pipelines and an LNG terminal on the west coast, the company will be able to take a commodity worth a few dollars here and sell it for many times more in Asia.

...

Since Canada's gas explorers are stuck in neutral, you might think that Asian energy firms would be making minimal offers, trying to acquire these resources on the cheap. Instead, Petronas offered C$22.45 a share for Progress, 77% more than Progress' closing price the previous day. Are they trying to earn goodwill with Canadians? Perhaps, but there's a more likely explanation for their generosity: pressure from behind.



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