2011-04-17schaeffersresearch.com

``I see a clue to an answer to Paul's question of whether precious metals are behaving as commodities (which could better support the "top" argument), or as currencies (which could suggest the potential for a lot more upside), amid the muted volatility of the current spike higher in the silver futures compared to the 1979-1980 spike. The bottom pane of the chart below shows the 14-month historical volatility of the silver futures contract, and note the spike in this volatility -- to just shy of 100% -- in 1980. Fast forward to the present date, and we see that prevailing silver futures volatility is about 25%, or about a quarter of the peak 1980 level.''



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