Shiller: "Worst Times Ahead"

"This is not a run of the mill recession that we are in. This is a crisis of confidence that we haven't seen since the Great Depression. ... Ultimately I think economic forecasting is more guess work than people realize. In times when you don't have a fundamental change, you can exrapolate curves, and people do that pretty well. But right now I don't trust extrapolation. It also - forecasting - depends on how the new government, how the new president, what he does, how he shapes confidence - and those are also unknowns at this point."