Relevant:
- Despite June Hike Talk, Yield Curve is Not Cooperating
- Dollar dips after Trump tax plan spurt, bond yields stay up
- The Market Has Been on a "Sugar High"; With Massive Deficit-Driven Borrowing, Reality is Setting In
- Markets doubt future rate hikes and unwinding; disagree with Fed's glass-half-full view of economy
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen: 'Unwise' to wait too long to hike interest rates
2008-06-09 — blogspot.com
I have strong doubts the Fed is going to hike given that any hikes will add to the wreckage in housing. However, if the Fed does hike, it will be for one reason only: It was forced to by the markets. It sure won't be because of a strengthening economy.
One day does not necessarily prove much, but the fact that there was no selloff in the long bond today in spite of a massive move in the 2's may be telling.
The supply of Treasuries given the fiscal deficit and Fed laundering facilities has reached tsunami proportions; around here we had been expecting this for quite a few months. The rubicon may have been crossed, as far as the market is concerned.
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