Implode-Explode Heavy Industries news feed http://implode-explode.com/ Tracking the many faces of the global credit implosion. en-us iehi-feed-65630 Fri, 24 Jun 2022 16:52:11 GMT Millennials and Gen Zers want to buy homes--but they can't afford it http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2022-06-24_MillennialsandGenZerswanttobuyhomesbuttheycantaffordit.html The findings: Nearly three-quarters (74%) of American adults still view homeownership as a top hallmark of achieving the so-called American Dream, beating out the ability to retire (66%), a successful career (60%) and having children (40%). Only 35% of respondents named obtaining a college degree as a key sign of economic success.

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"Non-homeowners cite insufficient income, high home prices, and not being able to afford a down payment or closing costs as the most common barriers to becoming a homeowner," Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst, Greg McBride, said in a statement. "High, and rising, home prices can contribute to the feelings of not having enough income or savings accumulated to buy a house."

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In the Bankrate survey, many younger Americans said they were willing to take some form of action to access a more affordable home: Three-quarters of Gen Zers and 69% of millennials said they'd consider relocating to a different state, moving to a more affordable but less desirable area, or taking a discount on a fixer-upper to achieve their dream.

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iehi-feed-65629 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 13:19:59 GMT Renting vs. owning: The difference is 'higher than at any time since the turn of the century' http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2022-06-20_RentingvsowningThedifferenceishigherthanatanytimesincetheturnoft.html iehi-feed-65628 Mon, 20 Jun 2022 12:59:13 GMT With mortgage rates and home prices soaring, fractional ownership solutions arise http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2022-06-20_Withmortgageratesandhomepricessoaringfractionalownershipsolution.html iehi-feed-65626 Mon, 23 May 2022 21:18:40 GMT The U.S. Housing Market Has Peaked http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2022-05-23_TheUSHousingMarketHasPeaked.html iehi-feed-65625 Tue, 05 Apr 2022 16:53:18 GMT Moody's: Some Office, Hotel Loans Are Redefaulting In Warning Sign For Market http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2022-04-05_MoodysSomeOfficeHotelLoansAreRedefaultingInWarningSignForMarket.html At least 13 commercial mortgage-backed loans that were more than 60 days behind payments in August 2020, but then recovered, began missing their repayments between October 2021 and March of this year, according to Moody's Analytics research first reported by Bloomberg.

A total of 7.89% of CMBS loans were marked as "troubled" in March, according to Moody's, a slight increase over February. 

Moody's found the repayment challenges on retail and office properties are being caused by the fact that it is still hard to find tenants to fill space. As uncertainty hangs over the leasing market, the delinquency rate could be set to grow -- although if hospitality demand improves that may offset the challenges in other sectors.

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iehi-feed-65621 Tue, 02 Nov 2021 15:29:38 GMT Zillow Looks to Sell 7,000 Homes for $2.8 Billion After Flipping Fiasco http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-11-02_ZillowLookstoSell7000Homesfor28BillionAfterFlippingFiasco.html Zillow Group Inc. is looking to sell about 7,000 homes as it seeks to recover from a fumble in its high-tech home-flipping business. The company is seeking roughly $2.8 billion for the houses, which are being pitched to institutional investors, according to people familiar with the matter. Zillow will likely sell the properties to a multitude of buyers rather than packaging them in a single transaction, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter is private

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Zillow recently said it would stop making new offers in its home-flipping operation for the remainder of the year, though it continues to close on properties that were already under contract. The decision came after the company tweaked the algorithms that power the business to make higher offers, leaving it with a bevy of winning bids just as home-price appreciation cooled off a bit.

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iehi-feed-65619 Thu, 14 Oct 2021 12:52:58 GMT Today's tight housing market is already overbuilt, one analyst says http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-10-14_Todaystighthousingmarketisalreadyoverbuiltoneanalystsays.html McGill cited data from the latest Decennial Census from the U.S. Census showing household formation is about 24% below where it was in the prior four decades.

McGill's partner Ivy Zelman, who is perhaps best known for one of the first warnings about the subprime mortgage crisis over a decade ago, agreed.

"The market is too hot. There is just a massive amount of capital that's coming to the space," Zelman said, referring to the investor interest in the housing market. "We actually believe the industry is already overbuilding in single-family to normalized demand by roughly 20% and about 10% for multi-family, so we couldn't be on more of an opposite side of where the market is and where the industry is, frankly."

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iehi-feed-65617 Mon, 20 Sep 2021 14:29:00 GMT Evergrande debt: Collapse could have domino effect on China properties http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-09-20_EvergrandedebtCollapsecouldhavedominoeffectonChinaproperties.html While the struggling developers are tiny individually, compared to Evergrande, they make up about 10%-15% of the total market on aggregate, Zeng said. She warned that a collapse could result in a "systemic" spillover to other parts of the economy.

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Some economists have warned that the collapse of Evergrande could become China's "Lehman moment" -- a reference to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered the 2008 global financial crisis.

However, Capital Economics senior global economist Simon MacAdam described that narrative as "wide of the mark."

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iehi-feed-65616 Mon, 20 Sep 2021 13:34:38 GMT Dow futures skid nearly 2% Monday as fear of market contagion from China's Evergrande intensifies http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-09-20_Dowfuturesskidnearly2MondayasfearofmarketcontagionfromChinasEver.html iehi-feed-65614 Fri, 17 Sep 2021 22:20:20 GMT Growing number of U.S. suburbs now dominated by renters http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-09-17_GrowingnumberofUSsuburbsnowdominatedbyrenters.html Of the nearly 5 million residents who moved to suburbs surrounding the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, almost 80% were renters, the analysis found. And while the ranks of suburban homeowners grew 3% between 2010 and 2019, suburban renters jumped 22% over that period. 

Overall, roughly a quarter of the more than 1,100 suburbs near the nation's 50 largest metro areas are renter-dominated, according to Rent Cafe. Some 21 million people rented their homes in the suburbs as of 2019, up from 17 million a decade ago.

Millennials and members of Generation Z account for most suburban renters, Census data show. Rent Cafe notes that 55% of suburban renters are younger than 45, with median household earnings of around $50,000.

Meanwhile, the pandemic is expected to further fuel the shift away from suburban homeownership in favor of renting. Remote work opportunities have generated more interest in suburban areas within striking distance of cities.

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iehi-feed-65610 Sun, 08 Aug 2021 13:18:42 GMT Was The Great Pandemic Migration To Miami Overhyped? http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-08-08_WasTheGreatPandemicMigrationToMiamiOverhyped.html The Miami metro netted a loss of 42,100 people in 2020, 11% more net move-outs than in 2019, the CBRE analysis found. 

More New Yorkers did move to Florida than normal. The post office data logged 25,843 moves to Miami/Fort Lauderdale from the New York/Jersey City area in 2020. The year prior, when there was no pandemic, there'd been 20,794 similar moves.

Willett said the bump in NY-to-Miami movers represented "a meaningful increase, not just a small increase, but when you look at the grand scheme of migration into and out of South Florida, the flows from places like New York are still a very small portion of the moves to begin with."

... By far, young single urbanites made the most moves, while a demographic "GenXUrban" -- with kids, cars and mortgage payments -- made the fewest.

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iehi-feed-65608 Sun, 01 Aug 2021 15:59:08 GMT Soaring Post-COVID Home Prices and the Fed http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-08-01_SoaringPostCOVIDHomePricesandtheFed.html So what can the Fed do about any of this? Officials, including Mr. Bullard, have suggested that it might make sense for the Fed to slow its monthly purchases of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities soon, and quickly, to avoid giving housing an unneeded boost by keeping mortgages so cheap.

Discussions about how and when the Fed will taper off its buying are ongoing, but most economists expect bond-buying to slow late this year or early next. That should nudge mortgage rates higher and slow the booming market a little.

But borrowing costs are likely to remain low by historical standards for years to come. Longer-term interest rates have fallen even as the Fed considers dialing back bond purchases, because investors have grown more glum about the global growth outlook. And the Fed is unlikely to lift its policy interest rate -- its more powerful tool -- away from rock bottom anytime soon.

Ideally, officials would like to see the economy return to full employment before lifting rates, and most don't expect that moment to arrive until 2023. They're unlikely to speed up the plan just to cool off housing. Fed officials have for decades maintained that bubbles are difficult to spot in real time and that monetary policy is the wrong tool to pop them.

For now, your local housing market boom is probably going to be left to its own devices -- meaning that while first time home buyers may end up paying more, they will also have an easier time financing it.

And they'll have an easier time ending up underwater whenever this boom reverses...

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iehi-feed-65606 Sat, 17 Jul 2021 16:11:21 GMT Going back to the office or permanent remote: the future of WFH http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-07-17_GoingbacktotheofficeorpermanentremotethefutureofWFH.html iehi-feed-65603 Fri, 02 Jul 2021 23:13:41 GMT Manhattan Residential Real Estate Finally Bounces Back - But Not Quite "Normal" http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-07-02_ManhattanResidentialRealEstateFinallyBouncesBackButNotQuiteNorma.html Buyers over the last few months gravitated toward co-ops, a housing type that had seemed to lose some favor in recent years. Co-ops accounted for 49 percent of all deals, versus 37 percent for existing condos, according to Corcoran. And in the frenzy of the post-pandemic market, downtown seems to have benefited at the expense of uptown, according to Compass, which reported that neighborhoods like Chelsea, SoHo and the East Village accounted for 31 percent of all deals.

For Elizabeth Stribling-Kivlan, a senior managing director at Compass, one of the spring's most heartening developments was improvement in the financial district, a neighborhood that became a veritable ghost town during the pandemic with the emptying out of office buildings. Median prices there soared 33 percent in a year, the largest increase of any neighborhood, she said.

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Prices [generally], though, may have a ways to go. The price per square foot for resale apartments, which is a useful indicator because it controls for the apartment size, Mr. Miller said, actually declined this spring over a year ago, to $1,408 from $1,461, or 3.6 percent.

"Prices are still not at parity with a year ago," he said. The overall discount that buyers are paying on list prices is at 6.4 percent, which is better than 2020 but still higher than the decade average of 4.9 percent. "There still is a Covid discount out there," Mr. Miller said, "but it's easing."

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iehi-feed-65602 Fri, 02 Jul 2021 13:41:37 GMT Office Vacancies Soar in New York, a Dire Sign for the City's Recovery http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-07-02_OfficeVacanciesSoarinNewYorkaDireSignfortheCitysRecovery.html Across Manhattan, home to the two largest business districts in the country, 18.7 percent of all office space is available for lease, a jump from more than 15 percent at the end of 2020 and more than double the rate from before the pandemic, according to Newmark, a real estate services company... Some neighborhoods are faring worse, such as Downtown Manhattan, where 21 percent of offices have no tenants, Newmark said.

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There are signs that the situation in New York could get worse. A third of leases at large Manhattan buildings will expire over the next three years, according to CBRE, a commercial real estate services company, and companies have made clear they will need significantly less space.

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About 14 million square feet of office space is under construction in New York City, which is equal to about double the size of Orlando, Fla.

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iehi-feed-65595 Wed, 28 Apr 2021 22:15:30 GMT Ground Lease On Times Square Hotel Once Valued at $126M Sells For $4M http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-04-28_GroundLeaseOnTimesSquareHotelOnceValuedat126MSellsFor4M.html After years of sliding valuations and multiple auctions, the Gallivant Times Square Hotel has sold for a fraction of its previous value.

Special servicer LNR Partners sold the ground lease of the 334-room hotel at 234 West 48th St. to an LLC controlled by Mehran Kohansieh for $4M, according to records filed with the city last week.

Kohansieh also goes by Mike Kohan and owns Kohan Retail Investment Group. He told Bisnow that the company, which owns aging malls around the country, plans to keep the property as a hotel and "revitalize" it. LNR Partners acquired the ground lease for $9.5M after foreclosing on its previous owner, Investcorp.

The sale, announced with limited details by brokerage JLL last month, concludes years of mounting debt and several rebrands. CMBS tracking firm Trepp's remittance data suggests the liquidation proceeds for LNR were $2.5M. That sum "was completely eaten away by expenses," Trepp wrote in a report Tuesday, which noted the hotel was appraised at $126M at securitization in 2006.

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iehi-feed-65594 Mon, 26 Apr 2021 13:45:42 GMT Stow Your Outrage About a Capital Gains Tax Hike http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-04-26_StowYourOutrageAboutaCapitalGainsTaxHike.html ... there have been three recent, real-world opportunities to observe the impact of a capital gains tax hike -- in 1987, 1988 and 2013. In each case, equities (with the exception of momentum stocks) stumbled before the hikes were enacted but outperformed afterward.

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the fruits of the market's boom have been narrowly enjoyed. The wealthiest 1% of Americans reported about 75% of all long-term capital gains in 2019, according to the Tax Policy Center, with the wealthiest 0.1% -- the cohort with annual incomes above $3.8 million -- hauling in more than half of all capital gains.

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iehi-feed-65592 Mon, 19 Apr 2021 00:53:50 GMT Homeless encampment outside of the Fed forces Powell to reckon with uneven recovery http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-04-18_HomelessencampmentoutsideoftheFedforcesPowelltoreckonwithunevenr.html The Fed has several tools to protect the economy, and Powell deployed them with full force last year. But that kind of intervention aids some parts of the economy more than others.

Slashing interest rates and backstopping corporate debt, for example, helped direct money into the financial system. Some of the biggest beneficiaries were wealthier Americans who hold investments. As a stark sign of how the rich got richer in the past 12 months, the number of billionaires on Forbes's 35th-annual ranking grew by nearly a third, swelling by 660.

Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist and now a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute, said the inequality stems from the limitations of the Fed's monetary policy tool kit. Low interest rates or asset purchases influence the macroeconomy as a whole. In the Fed's efforts to quicken the recovery, Sahm said that "some of the problems they're trying to solve, they make a little bit worse."

"It's not intentional," she added. "They don't like [Tesla's] Elon [Musk] more than the worker at Walmart. But the reality is that their tools make him better off more quickly than the worker."

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The Fed uses a wide dashboard of metrics to monitor the labor market. And recently, pressure has grown to drill down beyond the aggregate unemployment rate, which was 6 percent in March. Economists note that the overall figure doesn't account for major disparities in the jobless rate between White, Black, Hispanic and Asian workers.

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iehi-feed-65587 Mon, 29 Mar 2021 22:45:47 GMT Remote Work Is Here to Stay. Manhattan May Never Be the Same. http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-03-29_RemoteWorkIsHeretoStayManhattanMayNeverBetheSame.html ``"Going back to the office with 100 percent of the people 100 percent of the time, I think there is zero chance of that," Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan's co-president and chief operating officer, said in an interview in February on CNBC. "As for everyone working from home all the time, there is also zero chance of that.''

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The loss of workers has caused the market value of commercial properties that include office buildings to plunge nearly 16 percent during the pandemic, triggering a sharp decline in tax revenue that pays for essential city services, from schools to sanitation.

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New York is set to receive significant federal assistance from the $1.9 trillion federal stimulus package: $5.95 billion in direct aid and another $4 billion for schools, a City Hall spokeswoman said. While that addresses immediate needs, the city still faces an estimated $5 billion budget deficit next year and similar deficits in the following years, and a changing work culture could hobble New York's recovery.

The amount of office space in Manhattan on the market has risen in recent months to 101 million square feet, roughly 37 percent higher than a year ago and more than all the combined downtown office space in Los Angeles, Atlanta and Dallas. "This trend has shown little signs of slowing down," said Victor Rodriguez, director of analytics at CoStar, a real estate company.

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Only 15 percent of workers have returned to offices in New York City and the surrounding suburbs, up slightly from 10 percent last summer, according to Kastle Systems, a security company that analyzes employee access-card swipes in more than 2,500 office buildings nationwide. Only San Francisco has a lower rate.

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At least one industry, however, is charging in the opposite direction. Led by some of the world's largest companies, the technology sector has expanded its footprint in New York during the pandemic. Facebook has added 1 million square feet of Manhattan office space, and Apple added two floors in a Midtown Manhattan building.

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iehi-feed-65578 Fri, 05 Mar 2021 19:52:28 GMT NYC's Financial District faces office glut as tenant exits loom http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2021-03-05_NYCsFinancialDistrictfacesofficeglutastenantexitsloom.html New York's Financial District is suffering as a glut of office space builds with the pandemic keeping workers home. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the latest high-profile tenant to look for an exit from the neighborhood, a historic part of lower Manhattan that is home to the New York Stock Exchange and Federal Reserve.

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"The sublet spaces currently on offer at deeply discounted rates is a veritable flood of biblical proportions, with more likely to come online soon," said Ruth Colp-Haber, chief executive officer of brokerage Wharton Property Advisors.

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"What's happening in this market and in other downturns in the real estate market is flight to quality," Engelhardt said. "Tenants in this market, especially post-pandemic, are looking for healthier, newer, inspired spaces to encourage their staff to return to the office."

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