Implode-Explode Heavy Industries news feed http://implode-explode.com/ Tracking the many faces of the global credit implosion. en-us iehi-feed-61959 Mon, 27 Mar 2017 15:48:15 GMT Rich Chinese Race to Apply for a U.S. "Golden Visa" http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-27_RichChineseRacetoApplyforaUSGoldenVisa.html As members of Congress in Washington debate raising the minimum required to obtain a U.S. immigrant investor visa from $500,000 to $1.35 million, concern about the hike has set off a scramble among wealthy would-be participants in China.

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At stake if the EB-5 is curtailed is a program estimated to have played a role in creating at least 200,000 U.S. jobs and drawing as much as $14 billion from Chinese investors alone, based on data provided by Rosen Consulting Group and the Asia Society. Past projects taking advantage of EB-5 include New York's Hudson Yards, Hunter's Point Shipyard in San Francisco, and a Trump-branded tower in Jersey City.

New projects recently doing the rounds in China's chat rooms, web forums and hotel-ballroom investor seminars include a 5-star hotel complex in Palm Springs, California, and what's touted as "the world's tallest residential building," on New York's 57th Street, known as Billionaires' Row.

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iehi-feed-61958 Mon, 27 Mar 2017 15:46:23 GMT Fading Trump rally threatened by rare contraction of US credit http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-27_FadingTrumprallythreatenedbyrarecontractionofUScredit.html Data from the US Federal Reserve shows that the $2 trillion market for commercial and industrial loans peaked in December. The sector has weakened abruptly as lenders tighten credit, especially for non-residential property. Over the last three months it has dropped at a rate of 5.4pc on annual basis, a pace of decline not seen since December 2008.

The deterioration in the broader $9 trillion market for loans and leases has been less dramatic but it too is shrinking, falling at a 1.6pc rate on a three-month basis. "Corporate lending has ground to a halt and I am staggered that the Fed is raising rates. They have made a very big mistake," said Patrick Perret-Green from AdMacro.

... Credit has tended to pick up signs of trouble several weeks before equity markets in recent episodes of financial stress... Monetary tightening in the US so far this cycle has been equal to 13 rate rises under the Fed's Wu-Xia model, which includes the effects of withdrawing stimulus from quantitative easing. Nobody knows where the pain threshold lies in a global financial system that is more leveraged than at any time in history, including Fed officials themselves.

... Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said his early warning indicator - real six-month M1 money - turned negative in February. It has ticked up a little in March but not enough to prevent what would normally be an economic relapse later this year.

... Kevin Gaynor from Nomura says his model of asset pricing suggests markets are in effect assuming global growth of 5pc and earnings increases of 30pc a year. These are heroic. "There is a time decay on this new temporary equilibrium," he notes acidly.

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iehi-feed-61957 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 16:07:58 GMT Condo Flippers in Miami-Dade Left Twisting in the Wind http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_CondoFlippersinMiamiDadeLeftTwistingintheWind.html Miami-Dade's spectacular condo flipping mania is in turmoil, with sales plunging, inventory-for-sale soaring, and new supply flooding the market... In February, existing home sales of all types fell 10% year-over-year, to 1,835 homes. These sales "do not include Miami's multi-billion dollar new construction condo market," the Miami Association of Realtors clarified in its report on March 23.

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[The current high] inventory [which is 2x the level in 2013] understates the total number of condos for sale. It only includes units listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). But developers normally don't list their new units on the MLS, and thus they're not included in the above chart.

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iehi-feed-61956 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 16:05:17 GMT What Happens to the U.S. Midwest When the Water's Gone? http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_WhatHappenstotheUSMidwestWhentheWatersGone.html In the coming decades this slow-speed crisis will unfold just as the world needs to increase food production by 60 percent, according to the United Nations, to feed more than nine billion people by mid-century.

The draining of North America's largest aquifer is playing out in similar ways across the world, as large groundwater basins in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East decline rapidly. Many of these aquifers, including the southern Ogallala, have little ability to recharge. Once their water is gone, they could take thousands of years to refill.

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iehi-feed-61955 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 15:49:20 GMT Bridgewater Releases Report on Populism http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_BridgewaterReleasesReportonPopulism.html iehi-feed-61954 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 15:38:05 GMT The Swamp Drains Trump - KUNSTLER http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_TheSwampDrainsTrumpKUNSTLER.html iehi-feed-61953 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 15:36:52 GMT Trump's path forward only gets tougher after health-care fiasco http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_Trumpspathforwardonlygetstougherafterhealthcarefiasco.html ... others in the party acknowledged the political damage sustained by pulling the House bill, particularly for a president who had touted his own dealmaking prowess... While Republicans broadly share the goal of Trump's promised "big tax cuts," the president will have to bridge many of the same divides within his own party that sank the attempted overhaul of the Affordable Care Act. And without savings anticipated from the health-care bill, paying for the "massive" cuts Trump has promised for corporations and middle-class families becomes considerably more complicated.

Meanwhile, other marquee agenda items, including a $1 trillion investment in roads and other infrastructure and proposed crackdowns on both legal and illegal immigration, will require the support of Democrats, many of whom have been alienated by the highly partisan start to Trump's tenure.''

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iehi-feed-61952 Sun, 26 Mar 2017 15:28:48 GMT Week in Review: Stocks See Worst Week Since Election as Trump Dealt Setback With Health-Care Bill http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-26_WeekinReviewStocksSeeWorstWeekSinceElectionasTrumpDealtSetbackWi.html iehi-feed-61951 Sat, 25 Mar 2017 15:25:26 GMT "It Was a Very Bad Earnings Season" (Again) http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-25_ItWasaVeryBadEarningsSeasonAgain.html ``The recovery in earnings is as lackluster as the recovery in economy, a more constructed relationship where stocks are concerned. That leaves share prices, in general, operating on the far end of the probability spectrum; where everything has to go just right in the near future, including whatever may come out of Trump "stimulus" and economic policies. EPS, however, suggests, as the calculations for GDP potential, that that would be a very low probability outcome, including a high risk of "something" going wrong all over again just like it was in 2014.

For shareholders, that leaves them in a precarious position expecting something that just isn't very likely. Worse, any objective review of economic prospects for years before suggested the very same, meaning that nothing has really changed in terms of the long run except actual reported earnings which are supposed to matter more.''

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iehi-feed-61950 Sat, 25 Mar 2017 15:21:23 GMT Greece to Break Off Face-to-Face Talks as Issues Persist http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-25_GreecetoBreakOffFacetoFaceTalksasIssuesPersist.html Greece and the institutions managing its bailout review will break off negotiations in Brussels without having cleared a path to conclude the deliberations that would release needed rescue funds.

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Greece is edging closer to a repeat of the 2015 drama that pushed Europe's most indebted state to the edge of economic collapse, as the government in Athens and its creditors disagree over reforms to the pension system and the labor and energy markets. Greece needs to complete the review in order to get the next portion of its aid payment before it has more than 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of bonds come due in July.

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iehi-feed-61948 Sat, 25 Mar 2017 15:16:50 GMT GOP health bill goes down, but Trump can still unleash HHS to bedevil Obamacare http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-25_GOPhealthbillgoesdownbutTrumpcanstillunleashHHStobedevilObamacar.html "The biggest thing that needs to be done is figuring out some way to attract young, healthy people" to exchange plans, Perlman said. But HHS, under Price's leadership, seems unlikely to try to improve the law. And "purposefully sabotaging the exchanges and the ACA probably isn't difficult," said Perlman. And for that matter, HHS is "probably the only game in town right now" that can do it.

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Health insurers "need a stable market, stable rules and a broader pool -- none of which has been fixed yet, nor does it seem likely it will be in time," Sheryl Skolnick, Mizuho Securities' director of research and senior health-care analyst, told MarketWatch in early February.

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Then there are the ACA subsidies, which make exchange plans affordable to middle and low-income individuals. If HHS declined to appropriate them, it would "immediately destroy the exchanges," Perlman said. It's also possible, though unlikely, that tax reform -- Republicans' next project -- could reverse the subsidies, he said.

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iehi-feed-61947 Sat, 25 Mar 2017 15:10:42 GMT Death of the American Dream? Life In Post-Crisis America http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-25_DeathoftheAmericanDreamLifeInPostCrisisAmerica.html iehi-feed-61946 Sat, 25 Mar 2017 15:03:10 GMT Why the Retail Apocalypse Has Only Just Begun... http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-25_WhytheRetailApocalypseHasOnlyJustBegun.html iehi-feed-61945 Fri, 24 Mar 2017 03:00:52 GMT Sovereign Debt Crises Simmer At Opposite Ends of the Global Pecking Order: The U.S., and Greece http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_SovereignDebtCrisesSimmerAtOppositeEndsoftheGlobalPeckingOrderTh.html On one side of the Atlantic, we have the United States of America, which triggered yet another debt ceiling disaster last Thursday when the US government's maximum allowable debt reset to just over $20 trillion. Of course, the US national debt is pretty much already at $20 trillion... It's a repeat of what happened in 2015. And 2013. And 2011. Pretty amazing to consider that the "richest" country in the world has to plunder retirement funds in order to keep the lights on.

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Greece has had nine different governments since 2009. At least thirteen austerity measures. Multiple bailouts. Severe capital controls. And a full-out debt restructuring in which creditors accepted a 50% loss. Yet despite all these measures GREECE IS STILL IN A DEBT CRISIS.

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iehi-feed-61944 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 21:17:34 GMT Not enough votes: House delays health care bill to Friday http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_NotenoughvotesHousedelayshealthcarebilltoFriday.html iehi-feed-61943 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 21:09:28 GMT Lavish EU 60th Celebration Will Skirt Issues in Stumbling Italy, the Host Country http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_LavishEU60thCelebrationWillSkirtIssuesinStumblingItalytheHostCou.html "Italy was until very recently at the forefront of the European integration process," Luigi Zingales, professor of finance at University of Chicago Booth School of Business, said in an interview. "Today it's undoubtedly Europe's weakest link."

The economy grew just 0.9 percent last year, below the euro area's 1.7 percent, and unemployment is at 11.9 percent. A recent EU poll put Italy as the monetary union's second-most euro-skeptic state after Cyprus with only 41 percent saying the single currency is "a good thing." The average in the 19-member euro area is 56 percent.

That widespread disenchantment may be felt at elections due in about one year. A poll published on Tuesday by Corriere della Sera put support for the Five Star Movement, which calls for a referendum to ditch the euro, at a record 32.3 percent, well ahead of the ruling Democratic Party. Summit host Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni has only been in power since December, when Matteo Renzi resigned after losing a constitutional reform referendum.

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iehi-feed-61941 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 20:53:03 GMT Renters Now Rule Over Half of U.S. Cities http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_RentersNowRuleOverHalfofUSCities.html iehi-feed-61940 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 20:49:19 GMT Auto-loan quality to deteriorate further, forcing tighter underwriting http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_Autoloanqualitytodeterioratefurtherforcingtighterunderwriting.html "Subprime credit losses are accelerating faster than the prime segment, and this trend is likely to continue as a result of looser underwriting standards by lenders in recent years," said Michael Taiano, a director at the credit-ratings agency.

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"The tightening of underwriting standards is likely a response to expected deterioration in used vehicle prices and the weaker credit performance experienced in the subprime segment," added Taiano.

Used-car price declines have accelerated more recently, which will likely pressure recovery values on defaulted loans and lease residuals, the analysts said.

One measure, NADA's Used-Vehicle Price Index, tracking wholesale prices of used vehicles up to eight years old, declined over 6% in 2016 and was down 8% year over year in February 2017, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline.

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iehi-feed-61937 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 16:31:33 GMT Trump Faces Bitter Defeat [Today]- The Wall Street Examiner http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_TrumpFacesBitterDefeatTodayTheWallStreetExaminer.html iehi-feed-61936 Thu, 23 Mar 2017 15:26:54 GMT Landmark Times Square Building Forecloses, As Latecomer Owners "Waste Away In Margaritavile" of RE Downturn http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2017-03-23_LandmarkTimesSquareBuildingForeclosesAsLatecomerOwnersWasteAwayI.html A unit of Brookfield Asset Management foreclosed on a $60 million mezzanine loan after owners of the former music industry mecca [The Brill Building] failed to make a $5.6 million payment in November.

The owners -- including Allied Partners, Brickman & Associates, Israeli pension fund Halman-Aldubi and New York's Conway Capital -- got steamrolled by the weak retail leasing market. They'd hoped to cash in, or out, on the 180,000-square-foot landmark's 40,000 square feet of store space. But a possible deal with Jimmy Buffett's theme restaurant, Margaritaville, fell through.''

The below (courtesy of B.D.) is an excerpt of a July 2016 article, from when the new owners bought a $295 million stake in the building (it's not clear how large a share that represents). Regardless, this all sure looks "peaky" to us...

Brill Holdings, a partnership of real estate investment firm B+B Capital, Israel-based fashion chain Fox-Wizel and landlords Conway Capital and Schottenstein Realty, has bought into the landmarked Brill Building for $295 million, Commercial Observer has learned.

CO reported in August 2015 that the 175,000-square-foot building at 1619 Broadway between West 49th and West 50th Streets was in contract and as of today, Allied Partners and Brickman are co-owners of the 11-story building with Brill Holdings.

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