Implode-Explode Heavy Industries news feed http://implode-explode.com/ Tracking the many faces of the global credit implosion. en-us iehi-feed-64228 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 22:36:27 GMT Adapt Or Die: The Ways Landlords Are Bending Over Backward To Deal With A Shifting Retail World http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_AdaptOrDieTheWaysLandlordsAreBendingOverBackwardToDealWithAShift.html In the first half of 2018, more than 2,500 store locations closed in the United States, according to JLL's retail outlook report from the second quarter, and nearly 600 more locations will close by the end of the year. Across the country, the closures of retailers like Sears and Toys R Us have dumped empty space on the market. Retail absorption declined nearly 60% in Q2 2018 from a year earlier as vacancy ticked up.

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space left open by department store closures is being filled by operators that offer either value or an experience. Former Macy's stores, for example, are being filled by Whole Foods or Life Time Fitness, according to JLL's report, while AMC Theatres and H&M have gone into space once occupied by Sears and JC Penney.

It's all part of the trend toward service-driven, experiential real estate. Consumers are looking for experiences; something that cannot be recreated online, or that can be posted on Instagram. Or both.''

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iehi-feed-64227 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 19:32:49 GMT Tax Cuts Blow Out Federal Collections, Causing More Treasury Paper Dumping by the Truckload. | Lee Adler http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_TaxCutsBlowOutFederalCollectionsCausingMoreTreasuryPaperDumpingb.html For February, March, May, June, July, and August, Federal revenues fell by $81.5 billion, or an average of $13.6 billion per month. As Bloomberg put it so elegantly, "The White House says the tax cuts will pay for themselves by creating more revenue through faster economic growth."

But it ain't happening, folks! Tax cuts are not paying for themselves. Yes, there's more economic growth, but there's less revenue. Of course massive deficits are stimulative. Even we non economists know that. But where's the revenue growth? It's nowhere to be found.

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Furthermore, the uptick in GDP growth isn't even as high as a couple of quarters in 2014. So there's not even that much evidence that the tax cut is stimulating much. For sure the economy would have been slower without it, but the limited economic gains produced by this spending have a cost.

I hate to beat the horse that's already dead, but that cost is massive federal borrowing. The deficits must be paid for by the issuance of ever increasing amounts of Treasury debt. When that debt comes to market dealers and investors must buy it. The Fed stopped printing the money to buy all that paper at the end of 2014. And since October of 2017, the Fed has actually been extinguishing money. There's less and less money in the banks, making it that much tougher for dealers and investors to absorb all the new paper.

Because of that, Treasury bill and note yields have been blowing the roof off. Short term bill rates and 2 year note yields are skyrocketing. The yield on the 10 year note is knocking at the door of 3% again.''

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iehi-feed-64226 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 18:12:37 GMT Florida Foreclosures Are Skyrocketing Thanks To The Florida Supreme Court http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_FloridaForeclosuresAreSkyrocketingThanksToTheFloridaSupremeCourt.html iehi-feed-64225 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 18:10:37 GMT ATTENTION Mark Stopa Foreclosure Clients! http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_ATTENTIONMarkStopaForeclosureClients.html iehi-feed-64224 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 22:19:59 GMT Alibaba will no longer bring 1 million jobs to the US, citing tariffs http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-20_Alibabawillnolongerbring1millionjobstotheUScitingtariffs.html iehi-feed-64223 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:02:17 GMT Disgraced Foreclosure Defense Attorney's Law Firm Imploding Into Chaos! http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-20_DisgracedForeclosureDefenseAttorneysLawFirmImplodingIntoChaos.html iehi-feed-64222 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 17:13:03 GMT CNBC Just Posted Fake Inflation News. What Are The Implications for Fed Dovishness? | Lee Adler http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-20_CNBCJustPostedFakeInflationNewsWhatAreTheImplicationsforFedDovis.html ... is there any evidence of persistence here? Or is there any evidence that this month's headline reading was even material in the first place? A quick answer to the second question requiring no deeper analysis is...

No. There's no evidence that this was even material... In other words, the rally was based on the idea that the Fed might not tighten as fast or as much if inflation is really slowing. It's perfectly obvious to us that it isn't.

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There's simply no reason in the CPI data to believe that the Fed will back off from its tightening regimen. The longer the market stays high and the more it rises, the greater the risk of a severe adjustment.

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iehi-feed-64221 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 15:16:58 GMT FTC Shuts Down Websites Preying On Section 8 Renters http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_FTCShutsDownWebsitesPreyingOnSection8Renters.html iehi-feed-64220 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 23:43:08 GMT For Bitcoin, FOMO Is Being Replaced With FUD (Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt) http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_ForBitcoinFOMOIsBeingReplacedWithFUDFearUncertaintyAndDoubt.html FUD says Mt. Gox's billion dollars of bitcoin will crash the price. I hope so, I really do, because I'm still waiting for some cheap bitcoins; $2,500 a coin is cheap enough for me.

I'm still waiting, because $1 billion of bitcoin will evaporate in a week or two of selling. $2 or $3 billion of bitcoin gets transacted a day... Already 82% of all bitcoins are mined and around May 2020 new supply will halve. You can love or hate that, but bitcoin is solid deflationary money. We shouldn't hold the ‘digital gold' moniker against it. Bitcoin is a global currency, with increasing acceptance, a huge brand up there with Trump and the NFL, a global audience and a record of appreciation.

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iehi-feed-64219 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 19:40:47 GMT NY's Unfunded Public Retirement Health Benefits Balloons To $90+ Billion http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_NYsUnfundedPublicRetirementHealthBenefitsBalloonsTo90Billion.html New York's unfunded liability for state government retiree health coverage has reached $90.5 billion--an increase of $3 billion over last year's estimate, and nearly $13 billion in just two years, according to the just-released First Quarterly Update to the state's FY 2019 Financial Plan.

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What this basically means is that the state has a $91 billion debt in addition to its bonded state-related debt of $55 billion. And as the number of retirees and cost of health insurance grows, the OPEB debt will keep growing--unless something is done to reform or rein in these benefits.

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The annual charge for retiree health coverage--which, excluding SUNY, came to about $1.6 billion in fiscal 2018--is just the tip of a very big iceberg. Counting all public agencies in New York, including localities and authorities, the Empire Center estimated in 2012 that the total unfunded OPEB liability came to $250 billion--a figure that now probably is closer to $280 billion, if not higher.

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Government retirees at almost every level in New York are entitled to continuing health care coverage at a heavily discounted rate, or even for free--a benefit that has virtually disappeared from the private sector.

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iehi-feed-64218 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 18:06:22 GMT Trump Tower Condo Values Continue To Plummet By Double Digits http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_TrumpTowerCondoValuesContinueToPlummetByDoubleDigits.html iehi-feed-64217 Mon, 17 Sep 2018 14:07:13 GMT China reportedly says it won't just play defense in a trade war with the US http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-17_ChinareportedlysaysitwontjustplaydefenseinatradewarwiththeUS.html Beijing has said it would retaliate to trade war escalation with tariffs of its own as well as qualitative measures, which it has not specified but are perceived within the U.S. business community as likely to include increased customs and regulatory scrutiny.

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Beijing may also decline to participate in the proposed trade talks with Washington later this month if the Trump administration goes ahead with the additional tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing Chinese officials.

The Journal report quoted one senior Chinese advisory official saying China would not negotiate "with a gun pointed to its head".

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iehi-feed-64216 Mon, 17 Sep 2018 13:09:22 GMT Porsche Dealership VP Disappears After Pocketing $2.5 Million In Deposits http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-17_PorscheDealershipVPDisappearsAfterPocketing25MillionInDeposits.html iehi-feed-64215 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 15:05:37 GMT The 2008 crisis really did start off worse than the Great Depression http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_The2008crisisreallydidstartoffworsethantheGreatDepression.html ``As economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have shown, global stocks, trade and output actually all fell faster in 2008 than they had in 1929. Maybe the best example, though, of how quickly things turned was that South Korea, which didn't have any exposure to subprime mortgages but did have banks that depended on borrowing the money they needed from markets, went from growing at a 3.5 percent pace right before the Lehman Bros. collapse to shrinking at a 12.7 percent pace right after.''

This is really fascinating. The debate is between those who believe "policymakers deserve credit for doing enough to stop this from turning into a Second Great Depression", and "those who say policymakers didn't do enough to stop this from being far worse than it needed to be." There is apparently no space for those who think policymakers did too much, or even that they screwed up royally in creating the conditions for the collapse in the first place. Be afraid.

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iehi-feed-64214 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:58:57 GMT Polarization in Poland: A Warning From Europe http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_PolarizationinPolandAWarningFromEurope.html At that moment, when Poland was on the cusp of joining the West, it felt as if we were all on the same team. We agreed about democracy, about the road to prosperity, about the way things were going... That moment has passed. Nearly two decades later, I would now cross the street to avoid some of the people who were at my New Year's Eve party. They, in turn, would not only refuse to enter my house, they would be embarrassed to admit they had ever been there.

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Some of my New Year's Eve guests continued, as my husband and I did, to support the pro-European, pro-rule-of-law, pro-market center-right--remaining in political parties that aligned, more or less, with European Christian Democrats, with the liberal parties of Germany and the Netherlands, and with the Republican Party of John McCain. Some now consider themselves center-left. But others wound up in a different place, supporting a nativist party called Law and Justice--a party that has moved dramatically away from the positions it held when it first briefly ran the government, from 2005 to 2007, and when it occupied the presidency (not the same thing in Poland), from 2005 to 2010.

Since then, Law and Justice has embraced a new set of ideas, not just xenophobic and deeply suspicious of the rest of Europe but also openly authoritarian. After the party won a slim parliamentary majority in 2015, its leaders violated the constitution by appointing new judges to the constitutional court. Later, it used a similarly unconstitutional playbook to attempt to pack the Polish Supreme Court. It took over the state public broadcaster, Telewizja Polska; fired popular presenters; and began running unabashed propaganda, sprinkled with easily disprovable lies, at taxpayers' expense. The government earned international notoriety when it adopted a law curtailing public debate about the Holocaust. Although the law was eventually changed under American pressure, it enjoyed broad support by Law and Justice's ideological base--the journalists, writers, and thinkers, including some of my party guests, who believe anti-Polish forces seek to blame Poland for Auschwitz.

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iehi-feed-64213 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:24:16 GMT Mortgage Application Fraud Skyrocketing By Double Digits http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_MortgageApplicationFraudSkyrocketingByDoubleDigits.html iehi-feed-64212 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:04:15 GMT Yellen Advocates Insane Boom-and-Bust-Cyclical Policy http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_YellenAdvocatesInsaneBoomandBustCyclicalPolicy.html iehi-feed-64211 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:02:22 GMT These countries are most vulnerable to the emerging market storm http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_Thesecountriesaremostvulnerabletotheemergingmarketstorm.html iehi-feed-64210 Sat, 15 Sep 2018 23:49:17 GMT Mortgage Shotgunning Scheme Sends NY Real Estate Broker To Prison http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_MortgageShotgunningSchemeSendsNYRealEstateBrokerToPrison.html iehi-feed-64209 Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:51:51 GMT JPMorgan Sees Liquidity Wildcard in Gauging Depth of Next Crisis http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/2018-09-15_JPMorganSeesLiquidityWildcardinGaugingDepthofNextCrisis.html ``A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked a plunge in markets and a raft of emergency measures, strategists at the bank have created a model aimed at gauging the timing and severity of the next financial crisis. And they reckon investors should pencil it in for 2020.

The good news is, the next one will probably generate a somewhat less painful hit than past episodes, according to their analysis. The bad news? Diminished financial market liquidity since the 2008 implosion is a "wildcard" that's tough to game out...

Assuming an average-length recession, the model came up with the following peak-to-trough performance estimates for different asset classes in the next crisis, according to the note:

U.S. stock slide of about 20 percent.

A jump in U.S. corporate-bond yield premiums of about 1.15 percentage points.

A 35 percent tumble in energy prices and 29 percent slump in base metals.

A 2.79 percentage point widening in spreads on emerging-nation government debt.

A 48 percent slide in emerging-market stocks, and a 14.4 percent drop in emerging currencies.

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[But] JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic has previously concluded that the big shift away from actively managed investing -- through the rise of index funds, exchange-traded funds and quantitative-based trading strategies -- has escalated the danger of market disruptions. He and his colleagues wrote in a separate note Monday of the potential for a future "Great Liquidity Crisis." ... This change has "eliminated a large pool of assets that would be standing ready to buy cheap public securities and backstop a market disruption," Chang and Loeys warned.

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