A total of 7.89% of CMBS loans were marked as "troubled" in March, according to Moody's, a slight increase over February. 

Moody's found the repayment challenges on retail and office properties are being caused by the fact that it is still hard to find tenants to fill space. As uncertainty hangs over the leasing market, the delinquency rate could be set to grow -- although if hospitality demand improves that may offset the challenges in other sectors.

Though repeal of Act 22 is unlikely, lawmakers are considering amendments to it, said Sen. Juan Zaragoza, a member of the centrist Popular Democrático party who chairs the Senate Finance Committee.

Some people want to "kick them out of the island, and repeal the law retroactively," Zaragoza said. "There's a high level of hate against these people.

But the pandemic may have fundamentally changed this dynamic: The old power mismatch "reflects an unhealthy and fragile economy," said Bahn. "We have this once in a lifetime chance to do something about it."

Economic evidence strongly suggests Mr. Manchin is wrong. A host of economists and independent analyses have concluded that the bill is not economic stimulus, and that it will not pump enough money into consumer pocketbooks next year to raise prices more than a modest amount.

The reason has to do with the pace at which the bill spends money and how much it raises through tax increases that are intended to pay for that spending. The legislation spends funds over a decade, allowing the taxes it raises on wealthy Americans and businesses, which will siphon money out of the economy, to help counteract the boost from spending and tax cuts.

The bill also does not provide the type of direct stimulus included in the $1.9 trillion pandemic aid package Mr. Biden signed in March -- and which Mr. Manchin supported. Some of its provisions would give money directly to people, like a continued expanded child tax credit, but others would fund programs that would take time to ramp up, like universal prekindergarten.

Economists say the net result is likely to be at most a tenth of a percentage point or two increase in the inflation rate. That would be a relatively small effect at a time when supply chain crunches, surging global oil demand and a pandemic shift among consumers away from travel and dining out and toward durable goods have combined to raise the annual inflation rate to 6.8 percent, its fastest pace in nearly 40 years.

...

Zillow recently said it would stop making new offers in its home-flipping operation for the remainder of the year, though it continues to close on properties that were already under contract. The decision came after the company tweaked the algorithms that power the business to make higher offers, leaving it with a bevy of winning bids just as home-price appreciation cooled off a bit.

The one-two punch of government fiscal and Fed monetary policy continued to destroy the fabric of the economy for the average American. It dislocated the labor markets and the supply chain and it has ultimately led to inflation, which is making the basic cost of living much more expensive for Americans all across the country

In short, while your dollars today purchase fewer goods and services and your lives are more expensive and disrupted, those who are well-connected and asset-rich benefitted from outsized wealth increases driven by government policy.

Of course one party always seems to say "no" to any aid that might help support small businesses, because "that's socialism". With big business and elites having an inherent advantage, even when their considerable props are removed, small businesses still can't compete (e.g., consider the cost of capital between your average big business and small business -- it's not even close, with a healthy small business paying 20%+ for capital, and big business paying 0-8% -- or even less than zero).

McGill's partner Ivy Zelman, who is perhaps best known for one of the first warnings about the subprime mortgage crisis over a decade ago, agreed.

"The market is too hot. There is just a massive amount of capital that's coming to the space," Zelman said, referring to the investor interest in the housing market. "We actually believe the industry is already overbuilding in single-family to normalized demand by roughly 20% and about 10% for multi-family, so we couldn't be on more of an opposite side of where the market is and where the industry is, frankly."

...

Some economists have warned that the collapse of Evergrande could become China's "Lehman moment" -- a reference to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered the 2008 global financial crisis.

However, Capital Economics senior global economist Simon MacAdam described that narrative as "wide of the mark."

"In the next few years, two women will earn a college degree for every man, if the trend continues, said Douglas Shapiro, executive director of the research center at the National Student Clearinghouse," the Wall Street Journal writes. 

The story delves into the most obvious question: is this really such a big deal? After all, if men were prioritized in the past, isn't it only fair that women take the lead for now? According to experts, it's not as simple as a seesaw. 

"If you care about our society, one, and, two, if you care about women, you have to care about the boys, too," Jennifer Delahunty, a college enrollment consultant who previously worked at Kenyon College and Lewis & Clark College, told the paper. "If you have equally educated numbers of men and women that just makes a better society, and it makes it better for women."

Could young men (subconsciously or intentionally) be "boycotting" higher education because they feel they will be disfavored (or, alternatively, that they'll "finally have to really compete" against women)? Or perhaps men are more sensitive to the bum economic deal that college now presents, whereas women aren't? We definitely need to figure this out and address it, because this seems set to hugely destabilize society...

Overall, roughly a quarter of the more than 1,100 suburbs near the nation's 50 largest metro areas are renter-dominated, according to Rent Cafe. Some 21 million people rented their homes in the suburbs as of 2019, up from 17 million a decade ago.

Millennials and members of Generation Z account for most suburban renters, Census data show. Rent Cafe notes that 55% of suburban renters are younger than 45, with median household earnings of around $50,000.

Meanwhile, the pandemic is expected to further fuel the shift away from suburban homeownership in favor of renting. Remote work opportunities have generated more interest in suburban areas within striking distance of cities.

More New Yorkers did move to Florida than normal. The post office data logged 25,843 moves to Miami/Fort Lauderdale from the New York/Jersey City area in 2020. The year prior, when there was no pandemic, there'd been 20,794 similar moves.

Willett said the bump in NY-to-Miami movers represented "a meaningful increase, not just a small increase, but when you look at the grand scheme of migration into and out of South Florida, the flows from places like New York are still a very small portion of the moves to begin with."

... By far, young single urbanites made the most moves, while a demographic "GenXUrban" -- with kids, cars and mortgage payments -- made the fewest.

Of course, the economy has recovered more quickly than in past recessions. It's now larger than it was before the pandemic, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday.

Hiring is also up over the past few months. The economy added 850,000 new jobs in June, after 583,000 in May and 269,000 in April. However, the U.S. has yet to recover almost 7 million lost jobs versus pre-pandemic levels.

...

Twenty-six states ended their participation in federal unemployment programs over June and July, to try to encourage recipients to return to work -- effectively moving up the benefits cliff for residents by about two to three months.

With the $300 supplement, almost half of jobless workers (48%) make as much or more money on unemployment benefits than their lost paychecks, according to a recent paper published by the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Institute.

The extra funds had a small impact on job-finding among workers, but didn't significantly hold back the job market, according to economists Fiona Greig, Daniel Sullivan, Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel and Joseph Vavra, who authored the analysis.

And though it's still early, evidence so far doesn't suggest the state policies immediately pushed people back into the workforce.

If you believe the economy is larger now than before the COVID recession, I have a bridge to sell you (and when I do, we'll count that transaction towards economic growth as well!)

Discussions about how and when the Fed will taper off its buying are ongoing, but most economists expect bond-buying to slow late this year or early next. That should nudge mortgage rates higher and slow the booming market a little.

But borrowing costs are likely to remain low by historical standards for years to come. Longer-term interest rates have fallen even as the Fed considers dialing back bond purchases, because investors have grown more glum about the global growth outlook. And the Fed is unlikely to lift its policy interest rate -- its more powerful tool -- away from rock bottom anytime soon.

Ideally, officials would like to see the economy return to full employment before lifting rates, and most don't expect that moment to arrive until 2023. They're unlikely to speed up the plan just to cool off housing. Fed officials have for decades maintained that bubbles are difficult to spot in real time and that monetary policy is the wrong tool to pop them.

For now, your local housing market boom is probably going to be left to its own devices -- meaning that while first time home buyers may end up paying more, they will also have an easier time financing it.

And they'll have an easier time ending up underwater whenever this boom reverses...