FAQ  |  Search  |  Memberlist  |  Usergroups   |  Register  |  Profile  |  Log in to check your private messages  |  Log in 

 since we're all so damn brilliant View next topic
View previous topic



Post new topicReply to topic
Author Message
Justin
My head implode


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 493
Location: Atlanta

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2006 6:07 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

2.2 years??? Gettin pretty exact there, right?

As for buying a new car, check out carmax.com - find the new car on their website inventory and that will give you a great idea of the lowest price you will likely get at any local dealer.

That said, if you don't have to buy new, don't. Parth (you know on our kickball team) sells used vehicles that he buys at auctions at very, very reasonable prices. He makes super low margins and you know him (and I know him) - he could help you find what you are looking for. I would likely go through him if I were buying right now.

The housing market is imploding. Just wait.

_________________
Justin @ Justin Owings dot Com @ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's website
carlos
Flash in the pan


Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 54

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:01 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

i'll spit some wisdom from my dad vis a vis buying a car (for what it's worth, he's been in the car biz for over 25 years):

1. decide how long you plan to drive the next car you get: if you plan on driving it 6 or more years, buy new; 6 or less, buy something 2-3 years old.

2. do your own research. don't rely on a salesman to give you your information. it's not that they're dishonest, they just don't know what is right for you, so they will try and sell you the most car they can.

3. be somewhat flexible. if you have your heart set on a ford fiesta, then maybe you can be flexible on the color, or interior. if you have to have a black car, maybe you can get one with cloth seats, or with a manual transmission. real world example: toyota prius is very difficult to get in black--in fact many used ones are selling for more than new ones, just because they are available. but, you can get a new white prius, and at a lower price.

4. most cars are created equal, the key to making them last is keeping them well maintained. car manufacturers don't suggest getting your transmission flushed every 75,000 to stick it to you; it's to keep your car running.

your friend is probalby a good resource. if you have an idea as to what you want, i'd be happy to mention it to my dad to see if he can help you find something. just let me know.

neal-

housing market imploding? why do you say that? i see a slowdown, but implosion? i don't see much to indicate that. maybe if interest rates start shooting up (more than just 1/4 % every few months) resulting in a lot of foreclosures. what sort of time frame do you see?
View user's profileSend private message
Justin
My head implode


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 493
Location: Atlanta

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 11:15 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Los,

I might be exaggerating a bit on the use of the word "implosion." However, I believe the housing market is in for a long overdue bust after over a decade of bullish tendencies. The problem that the fed is facing is that they are going to need to keep raising those interest rates if they want to stop inflation; however, they're screwed if they do because the U.S. economy is going to get hammered and the housing market is really going to be nailed. What will they probably do? Slow the interest rate hikes to slowdown the housing market bust. Thus, we're in for some inflation. This is bad because the world markets are already losing confidence in the USD, so this will only further hurt the position of the USD in the global markets.

Gonna be some precarious times ahead.

_________________
Justin @ Justin Owings dot Com @ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's website
carlos
Flash in the pan


Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 54

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2006 11:46 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Quote:
Gonna be some precarious times ahead


i certainly agree.

i too think they will slow the interest rate hike--the recent job numbers weren't as good as expected--which is likely to push the fed further in that direction. but, as you say, that means inflation goes up. i think eventually they will have to ease rates up around 8 or even 9 percent. precarious indeed.

remember when the dollar and euro was a one for one exchange?

what do you guys think are the best hedges against this future?
View user's profileSend private message
Justin
My head implode


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 493
Location: Atlanta

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2006 4:13 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I would go with investing abroad, perhaps investing in commodities, and always investing in productive assets (i.e. businesses that you understand and businesses that have long-term viable growth opportunities).

The best way to beat inflation is to put your money to work. Think about it this way: businesses are actively engaging in economic transactions. Therefore, when inflation occurs, it's going to affect how much they can sell their goods for. As inflation rises, so do the prices of their goods. Accordingly, you're most likely to overcome inflation by investing in productive assets.

The commodities aspect is that as the world moves farther and farther away from the USD as the reserve currency, they will have to hold more reliable assets - like commodities. Some posit that the commodities bull market - particularly gold and silver and other precious metals - are only at the beginning of a bull cycle that will likely last another five to ten years. If this is the case, you can (and should) get in now and then reap the benefits when gold tops $2K per oz - or maybe even higher. Just wait ...

_________________
Justin @ Justin Owings dot Com @ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's website
halve
Flash in the pan


Joined: 24 May 2006
Posts: 86

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:19 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

some good points gents. good info on the cars Los; to go a bit further I heard from a gentleman who used to work at a car place you get them to lower the dollar 3 times and after that no matter what you walk. If he comes after you then you didn't get bottom dollar. If not, that's as good as they can do.
I also highly recommend going to epinions.com and checking out people's reviews on different cars, helped me a lot with my purchase.

As far as the housing market imploding etc; I see a slowdown, slight recession in some areas that have boomed over the last 5 yrs. but you have to keep in mind a couple of things:

1. Land, especially waterfront, mountain, etc will never produced so obviously scarcity plays into effect. In the long run as long as population increases so will the value of land, especially in waterfront, mountain.

2. The early 90's was rough on real estate and everybody said it would never come back as strong as it was, especially in California. riiiiiiiiiiight.

3. As far as the dollar, this one does concern me. I don't know what the answer is but we had better fix our deficit, that I do know. How? well, no clue.
________
XJ
________
Ford Indigo picture
________
DeSoto Airflow


Last edited by halve on Fri Feb 04, 2011 10:31 am; edited 3 times in total
View user's profileSend private messageAIM Address
carlos
Flash in the pan


Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 54

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:09 am Reply with quoteBack to top

certainly, they aren't making more land. but what about condo markets? to me, this seems like a market ripe for a crash. too many of them are owned by speculators. the next few months should be interesting.

certainly it could recover (as it did in cali), but are we headed for a bust, where homeowners will be forced to try and ride it out for 5 or 10 years? how high can the price of homes go? is it realistic to think that houses in middle class areas will start in the 700s-800s?

as an aside to that- do you think we will ever revalue our currency to knock of some zeroes? i mean, our great grandparents paid like 10,000 for a house. made 1400 a year. (numbers may not be accurate, but you know what i mean). or are we just all going to be making $8 million dollars and driving $500,000 nissan maximas?
View user's profileSend private message
Justin
My head implode


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 493
Location: Atlanta

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 12:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The way I see it, the real estate boom/bubble has shown up in two ways:

In areas where there was limited supply (California, New York ... pockets of Atlanta), you see rising prices.

In areas where you can develop new properties, you see overdevelopment.

Either way, no place can avoid the influx of money from the Fed - the reason we have inflation in the first place.

_________________
Justin @ Justin Owings dot Com @ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's website
halve
Flash in the pan


Joined: 24 May 2006
Posts: 86

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:47 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Los, definitely agree with you on the condo market; could be in a heap of trouble. i wouldn't touch it.

Very possible with all of the interest only loans that foreclosures will be a plenty. what will the result be? Well, for one... great buying opportunities that you can cash flow (rent out) and get some great passive income. Will the gov't intervene and screw the market up? dunno, should be interesting. If you want to be conservative in r.e. you buy something and have enough dinero to hold it for ten years. If you buy it right you cannot lose.

As to your aside, I've thought about that in the past; wish I had a good answer. I wish we could just do a back in time maneuver too, dang inflation.

Neal, I don't know if I completely agree with you on the new property/overdevelopment. There are certainly markets where that's the case (panama City has 20k new condos in the past couple of years) so obviously prices will go down significantly there but we're doing a development on a lake and there is by no means overdevelopment here. I do hear ya though; for many places builders/developers have gotten a bit too pumped up.
________
Acura CSX specifications
________
herbalaire vaporizer
________
Rolls-Royce 25/30


Last edited by halve on Fri Feb 04, 2011 10:31 am; edited 3 times in total
View user's profileSend private messageAIM Address
Justin
My head implode


Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 493
Location: Atlanta

Re: since we're all so damn brilliant
PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:47 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Any concern that the overproduction of vacation properties elsewhere will result in less demand at the lake properties you're selling?

Just curious - not trying to peck a fight Cool Shocked

_________________
Justin @ Justin Owings dot Com @ The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's website
Display posts from previous:      
Post new topicReply to topic


 Jump to:   


Merge topics 

View next topic
View previous topic
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB 2.0.22-2 (Debian) © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group :: FI Theme :: All times are GMT