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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 12:32 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Week ending Sept 27

down 20,000 to 478,000 (from an upwardly revised 498,000)

continuing claims: 3.66 Million (up from 3.06M
)

I was expecting this to be the week we would break the 500,000 mark.
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Rotag
Wrecking crew


Joined: 01 Nov 2007
Posts: 1722

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:19 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

We used to have a running game under the economic section but it fell out of favor.

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ProHobo
Wrecking crew


Joined: 31 Mar 2008
Posts: 1529

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 1:34 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63 wrote:
Week ending Sept 27

down 20,000 to 478,000 (from an upwardly revised 498,000)

continuing claims: 3.66 Million (up from 3.06M
)

I was expecting this to be the week we would break the 500,000 mark.


It's a game of labels not math.

When you add in part-time workers to boost the job numbers and remove discourage workers from the unemployed you can really skew the h**l out of the numbers.

Labels don't change math - if we use pre 1990 employment methodology we are closer to 12% unemployeed.

I don't know if you ever read my essay on government data (it is long) but feel free to comment and give me your thoughts if you decided to take the time to read it.

http://marketpreview.blogspot......posal.html

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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

ProHobo wrote:
It's a game of labels not math.

When you add in part-time workers to boost the job numbers and remove discourage workers from the unemployed you can really skew the h**l out of the numbers.

Labels don't change math - if we use pre 1990 employment methodology we are closer to 12% unemployeed.

I don't know if you ever read my essay on government data (it is long) but feel free to comment and give me your thoughts if you decided to take the time to read it.

http://marketpreview.blogspot......posal.html



I have been a reader of John William's work for about 4 years now, so I am quite aware of the government's manipulation of the employment numbers (and any other number they can get their hands on, for that matter). I suspect much of your research comes from him, as he is certainly considered the authority on the topic (his calculated unemployment number is around 13%, last time I looked).

This thread, however, is merely tracking the weekly jobless claims numbers. As far as I know there is a seasonal adjustment to the jobless claims, but that is the extent of the manipulation on this number. Outside of that, they literally just count up the claims.
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Rotag
Wrecking crew


Joined: 01 Nov 2007
Posts: 1722

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:37 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63 wrote:
ProHobo wrote:
It's a game of labels not math.

When you add in part-time workers to boost the job numbers and remove discourage workers from the unemployed you can really skew the h**l out of the numbers.

Labels don't change math - if we use pre 1990 employment methodology we are closer to 12% unemployeed.

I don't know if you ever read my essay on government data (it is long) but feel free to comment and give me your thoughts if you decided to take the time to read it.

http://marketpreview.blogspot......posal.html



I have been a reader of John William's work for about 4 years now, so I am quite aware of the government's manipulation of the employment numbers (and any other number they can get their hands on, for that matter). I suspect much of your research comes from him, as he is certainly considered the authority on the topic (his calculated unemployment number is around 13%, last time I looked).

This thread, however, is merely tracking the weekly jobless claims numbers. As far as I know there is a seasonal adjustment to the jobless claims, but that is the extent of the manipulation on this number. Outside of that, they literally just count up the claims.




BCD63,

I have heard same thing, that this is the one number that most people actually trust.

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Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability
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ProHobo
Wrecking crew


Joined: 31 Mar 2008
Posts: 1529

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63 wrote:
ProHobo wrote:
It's a game of labels not math.

When you add in part-time workers to boost the job numbers and remove discourage workers from the unemployed you can really skew the h**l out of the numbers.

Labels don't change math - if we use pre 1990 employment methodology we are closer to 12% unemployeed.

I don't know if you ever read my essay on government data (it is long) but feel free to comment and give me your thoughts if you decided to take the time to read it.

http://marketpreview.blogspot......posal.html



I have been a reader of John William's work for about 4 years now, so I am quite aware of the government's manipulation of the employment numbers (and any other number they can get their hands on, for that matter). I suspect much of your research comes from him, as he is certainly considered the authority on the topic (his calculated unemployment number is around 13%, last time I looked).

This thread, however, is merely tracking the weekly jobless claims numbers. As far as I know there is a seasonal adjustment to the jobless claims, but that is the extent of the manipulation on this number. Outside of that, they literally just count up the claims.


I too am a reader of John William's and yes some of the data that I complied did come from him. I have heard him lecture in San Francisco.
I used several sources - including Paul Erdman, John Williams, Greg Millman, Ron Paul, and others.

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http://marketpreview.blogspot.com/ <- daily market news, futures action, supply and support, and a spoonful of my opinion.
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 1:55 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

up 58,000 to 573,000 (week ended Dec. 6), the highest since November 1982

The number of workers staying on benefit rolls gained to 4.429 million, the most since December 1982.

The previous week was revised up from 509K to 515K.

Analysts were expecting it to rise to 525,000 from the 509,000 initially reported the previous week (median projection of 39 economists in a Bloomberg News survey -- estimates ranged from 485,000 to 555,000, so the actual was 18K higher than anyone expected)
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title_gal
Demolition Man


Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 2417

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:06 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

This is getting bad. I keep hearing how this hasn't affected Texas but will someone tell that to my brother and my niece who both have lost their jobs? Will someone tell my own company who is (per the rumor) tossing around another round of layoffs.

Those numbers are going to keep going up

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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Jan 22, 2009 1:53 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Weekly Jobless Claims Jump 62,000 To 589,000

Thursday morning, the Labor Department released its report on initial jobless claims in the week ended January 17th, showing that first-time claims for unemployment benefits increased by much more than economists had expected.

The report showed that jobless claims rose to 589,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 527,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 548,000 from the 524,000 originally reported for the previous week.


26 year high ... imagine what it would be if they were actually telling us the truth ...
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Weekly jobless claims
PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 1:33 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Weekly jobless claims for the week ending 1/24 were up 3,000 to 588,000 (prior week revised down 4,000 to 585,000)

continuing claims increase to 4.776 million, up from 4.617 the prior week
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