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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

VIX
PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 2:51 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

33 on last check

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Evix
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 3:36 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

A panic bottom should be around 50. Maybe a good trade to buy some QQQQ calls there.

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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:13 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

38.24
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:21 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I examined the charts for the 2001 to 2003 period. The big panic bottoms had VIX daily readings of 42 to 45. Look there to go long calls.

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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ProHobo
Wrecking crew


Joined: 31 Mar 2008
Posts: 1529

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:23 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The problem with the VIX is that it does NOT show statisical intra-day volatility - if you read my market preview - I often talk about "Hidden" Volatility - that is the Volatility of SKEW (OTM options) as well as statisical volatilty.

When the VIX was in the 20s the Hidden Volatilty was in the high 20s and low 30s.

It is only NOW catching up with reality.

It can go a lot higher.

So far we have not seen any panic in the market.

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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:27 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Now that we are below 10,725 in the DOW [50% level of cyclical bull] we probably are headed to test the 2002 - 2003 lows. It could take years though...

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:51 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

VIX almost 40. Might be time to get ready for the Friday bounce. The PPT do not want the public going into a down weekend. Could be a 500 pt rally DOW soon.

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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pba20420
C-4


Joined: 04 Jan 2008
Posts: 1112
Location: Goodland, Kansas

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:01 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Dow is down 119 right now.

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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:05 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63.

What ETFs, ETNs, Spyders, call options, etc. do you like for the big bounce?

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: VIX
PostPosted: Thu Sep 18, 2008 5:15 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

dreamer wrote:
bdc63.

What ETFs, ETNs, Spyders, call options, etc. do you like for the big bounce?


I may not try to catch the bounce ... I'm just trying like heck not to lose any of my gains from the fall ...

I have such a doom and gloom opinion of this economy, that it is hard for me to go long this market, even if it is just for a quick bounce.
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