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WFExec123
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 12 Aug 2007
Posts: 722

Re: GATA's Bill Murphy
PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:08 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I have been following all of you and your posts even though I haven't been posting. I kinda read into the lack of posting by everyone that things seemed to be stabilizing. I have met a lot of people over the past few years that have not only believed that the country was going over a cliff but have tried to introduce me to all kinds of conspiracy theories. I have heard (and not personally researched) about "Chemtrails", Secret "concentration camps" being made, the media blocking Ron Paul, 9/11 was an inside job, JFK's death was a cover up, amongst a bunch of other stuff that I am probably forgetting. My former next door neighbor (foreclosure) was predicting an economic collapse that should have happened about 6 months ago. He had a bunch of gold, dry food supplies, tons of guns and ammunition...basically a doomsday prepper. Well, his prediction didn't pan out (yet) and I wonder at what point do you throw in the towel and stop prepping? Another friend of mine had bought land in a rural area about 3 years ago, bought a bunch of rabbits and goats and started trying to become self sufficient preparing for the collapse. He couldn't hack it, abandoned that and is now back in college trying to figure out what to do with himself. I wonder if any of you have changed your positions on what is going to happen. I know this could be called a calm before the storm, but what do you all predict is going to happen next?

A few observations I have made:
Things haven't seemed to get a lot worse over the past two years, however they are definitely not better. Seems really stagnant.
The foreclosure mess is not sorted out still, at least not here in Nevada. Banks aren't even hardly processing foreclosures here for some reason, they are just holding off for some reason.
I have noticed a number of my neighbors have moved out and a bunch of new ones have moved in, there's not a bunch of empty homes. Most of the new neighbors are younger people (30ish).
There are a bunch of new businesses in the previously vacant commercial spaces, many of which appear to be taking advantage of cheap rent.
Jobs seem to be scarce and the openings that do exist seem to be really crappy jobs (beggars can't be choosers I guess). I can't remember the last time I saw a hiring sign in a window.
I don't see as many people dumping assets to raise cash as I did a few years ago, so prices aren't falling like they were before.

I hope the worst is over, but would love to get your opinions. I have managed to do pretty good staying all cash, I haven't bought food supplies or guns or gold. Anyways, enough blabbing. Glad you guys are here, I like popping in to see what you all have to say.
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Rotag
Wrecking crew


Joined: 01 Nov 2007
Posts: 1722

Re: GATA's Bill Murphy
PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 12:27 am Reply with quoteBack to top

WFExec123,

Glad to hear you are ok and that you still check in every now and again. I do as well.

I try not to spend too much time on conspiracy theories b/c it's hard enough to get a few people to agree little lone keep their mouths shut after they pull off something "big". Human nature likes recognition both good and bad.

As for the banks and foreclosures I will oversimplify my take. Mark to market and "realized" losses once they foreclose. So they are in no rush especially when Fed has gone all in with QE3 to infinity buying all those MBS's. Most people also don't know real estate values fell 90% from 1928 to 1945. (at least in some parts of NYC) So when all those people said real estate never goes down, they were accurate. (provided your sample size was the last 70 years) Rolling Eyes

I have changed my industry. I happen to have an educational background that allows me to be flexible. That said I did take a hit financially and am surviving. I am currently interviewing for a new job that will be a bump up in salary.

The economy and the stock market, imho, are both artificial. The hirings being reported are for $13 hr. jobs replacing $31 hr. jobs but very few people ever talk about that.

As for prepping, I have not gone to extremes like many but don't think it is a horrible idea to be able to take care of your family to handle a few months worth of food. It's really not that much provided you are willing to eat some bland and repetitive types of sustenance.

_________________
I hear nothing. I see nothing. I know nothing.

Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability
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WFExec123
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 12 Aug 2007
Posts: 722

Re: GATA's Bill Murphy
PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:48 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Rotag,

Good to hear from you. I agree with your assessments and observations. I by no means think good times are around the corner, I think this country will be stagnant for a while. One thing that seems to keep moving along is the diversity by immigration (especially out west) and things are shaping up to be a very different America 10 years from now. For one thing, the growing hispanic population will change the outcome of elections. Now one of the conspiracy theories is that the entire government is bought and that it's all just a show to hide the one agenda.
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billddrummer
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 06 Aug 2007
Posts: 792
Location: Reno, NV

Re: GATA's Bill Murphy
PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:51 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

WFExec123 wrote:
I have been following all of you and your posts even though I haven't been posting. I kinda read into the lack of posting by everyone that things seemed to be stabilizing. I have met a lot of people over the past few years that have not only believed that the country was going over a cliff but have tried to introduce me to all kinds of conspiracy theories. I have heard (and not personally researched) about "Chemtrails", Secret "concentration camps" being made, the media blocking Ron Paul, 9/11 was an inside job, JFK's death was a cover up, amongst a bunch of other stuff that I am probably forgetting. My former next door neighbor (foreclosure) was predicting an economic collapse that should have happened about 6 months ago. He had a bunch of gold, dry food supplies, tons of guns and ammunition...basically a doomsday prepper. Well, his prediction didn't pan out (yet) and I wonder at what point do you throw in the towel and stop prepping? Another friend of mine had bought land in a rural area about 3 years ago, bought a bunch of rabbits and goats and started trying to become self sufficient preparing for the collapse. He couldn't hack it, abandoned that and is now back in college trying to figure out what to do with himself. I wonder if any of you have changed your positions on what is going to happen. I know this could be called a calm before the storm, but what do you all predict is going to happen next?

A few observations I have made:
Things haven't seemed to get a lot worse over the past two years, however they are definitely not better. Seems really stagnant.
The foreclosure mess is not sorted out still, at least not here in Nevada. Banks aren't even hardly processing foreclosures here for some reason, they are just holding off for some reason.
I have noticed a number of my neighbors have moved out and a bunch of new ones have moved in, there's not a bunch of empty homes. Most of the new neighbors are younger people (30ish).
There are a bunch of new businesses in the previously vacant commercial spaces, many of which appear to be taking advantage of cheap rent.
Jobs seem to be scarce and the openings that do exist seem to be really crappy jobs (beggars can't be choosers I guess). I can't remember the last time I saw a hiring sign in a window.
I don't see as many people dumping assets to raise cash as I did a few years ago, so prices aren't falling like they were before.

I hope the worst is over, but would love to get your opinions. I have managed to do pretty good staying all cash, I haven't bought food supplies or guns or gold. Anyways, enough blabbing. Glad you guys are here, I like popping in to see what you all have to say.


Your observations mirror mine (you didn't mention whether you're in northern or southern NV). I'm in Reno.

I now work 40 miles out of town at an appraisal management company for about 30% less than I was earning.

The income change doesn't matter, because the bank I was working for failed and all but two of us were laid off.

i found this job after searching for work for 13 months. It's a good job with a great company, so I'm not complaining.

I've been renting an apartment since my house went to foreclosure back in 2007. Oddly enough, my rent hasn't risen in 4 years (complexes like tenants who pay the rent).

On your point about foreclosures, the new Nevada law requires banks to do much more due diligence before filing an NOD. That may be why filings have crashed compared to a few years ago. Not saying that people are paying their mortgages--just that the legal process has become more complex for lenders.

Some commercial retail properties are filling up with lower tier tenants (an old CompUSA is now a Goodwill, an old SaveMart supermarket is now an Easter Seals thrift). Payday loan stores seem to be taking over a lot of the smaller footprint vacancies (1200 sf).

There are actually lines now at some restaurants, unlike in the past when you could walk into Red Lobster and command the entire place.

So it seems like things are possibly, maybe, perhaps getting a little better. (How's that for a waffle sentence!)

Oh by the way, the company I'm working for is expanding. It seems there's an almost unlimited supply of distressed housing, and an equally unlimited supply of lenders who have no clue what the properties are worth.

Thanks for checking in.

_________________
No pressure, no diamonds.
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