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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
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The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 1:31 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/.....-us-banks/

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"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
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dreamer
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Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 7:56 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The Miles Franklin site did a transcript of the interview at:

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/?p=2094

Jim Sinclair has been very credible and is a bona fide heavy hitter. When he writes or speaks I really listen up.

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bdk
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Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 8:40 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Sooooooo these 5 banks make the rules and they are acting like AIG for Europe yea?

We have what another yr or two before this whole thing comes apart? OR will ppl panic so much and self fulfill 2012 disaster prophecies?

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Aaron
A-Bomb


Joined: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 824
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 4:18 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I think you guys are missing the main point that Jim was trying to get across. The banks wont default. Not formally at least. The ISDA is not likely to "allow" this to happen. So they will serve sh-- on a shingle and call it caviar.

There will be no implosion in the near future. But the side effect will be that the derivatives market, and the entire financial sector, will be that much more discredited.

Note how despite bailouts, the bank stocks have been ailing in the last year+ because no one can trust bank balance sheets any more, and no one knows what the banks' liabilities truly are. The foggy derivatives situation makes it worse.... regardless of what the ISDA does. All they can do is drag the pain out.
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
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Location: Maryland

Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:14 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Aaron wrote:
I think you guys are missing the main point that Jim was trying to get across. The banks wont default. Not formally at least. The ISDA is not likely to "allow" this to happen. So they will serve sh-- on a shingle and call it caviar.
.


I don't think anyone missed that point Aaron ... Jim was pretty darn clear, and this isn't our first time to this rodeo you know ...

What's going to be REALLY interesting is if Greece grows a pair and takes this decision out of the ISDA's hands (by leaving the EU and flat out defaulting on their debts). But even if that happened you can bet that the FED would IMMEDIATELY buy up all of the CDS's from the banks to save them from going down.

Short of that though, I'm afraid Jim is going to be right -- a 90% haircut will be called "voluntary" and no default insurance will come into play.

You really gotta wonder how "hedged" all these hedge funds are if "default" no longer means "default" to the guy who wrote your insurance policy, and his definition is the only one that counts.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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Aaron
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Joined: 24 Jan 2007
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Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:10 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Either way it will be interesting... "interesting times", as they say...
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bdc63
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Joined: 16 Feb 2007
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Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:03 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Thursday is make-or-break PSI day (3:00pm NY time) ... time to place your bets ...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000076956

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/.....uns-europe

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/.....ubject-psi

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: The Impending "Default" of 5 Major US Banks
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 2:52 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Greece steps up pressure in uncertain bond deal

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-50.....bond-deal/

this pretty much says it all:
Quote:
"Greece's economic program does not contemplate the availability of funds to make payments to private sector creditors that decline to participate in PSI," the agency said.


One Day Ahead Of PSI Deadline, IIF Can Only Account For 39% Of Greek Bondholders

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/.....ondholders

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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