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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:13 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

achtung wrote:
While we know credit has been pulled back from many people, we also have reports from the "big four" amex visa mc and discover, that have stated credit card use is at a historic high.

Wondering if people who normally would use a Heloc, are switching to plastic, or if the trend is to use major's over store cards? Whichever it is, it still does not make much sense, to me anyway.


how about this as a theory:

consumers and small businesses aren't able to get new credit so they are using their major credit cards for everything (including things like utility bills)
AND
people who stopped making their mortgage payments a year ago but their bank hasn't gotten around to foreclosing yet are spending that "windfall," which should have gone to toward their mortgage payment, at the mall.

the combination of those two things could move the needle on retail sales and credit card expenditures (especially when you consider the low base from the last couple of years that we are comparing it to), but certainly cannot really be looked at as positive trends for the economy.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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achtung
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 716
Location: Germany

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Sat Sep 10, 2011 4:55 am Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63 wrote:
achtung wrote:
While we know credit has been pulled back from many people, we also have reports from the "big four" amex visa mc and discover, that have stated credit card use is at a historic high.

Wondering if people who normally would use a Heloc, are switching to plastic, or if the trend is to use major's over store cards? Whichever it is, it still does not make much sense, to me anyway.


how about this as a theory:

consumers and small businesses aren't able to get new credit so they are using their major credit cards for everything (including things like utility bills)
AND
people who stopped making their mortgage payments a year ago but their bank hasn't gotten around to foreclosing yet are spending that "windfall," which should have gone to toward their mortgage payment, at the mall.

the combination of those two things could move the needle on retail sales and credit card expenditures (especially when you consider the low base from the last couple of years that we are comparing it to), but certainly cannot really be looked at as positive trends for the economy.


Not really looking for positive trends in the economy right now. Way to many muddled headwinds to get a positive signal. It seemed as though we were getting on track before the Japanese earthquake, but all the momentum has just been flushed.

Really, these positive consumer numbers are a boggle, since November. Sales increases were meeting (not exceeding) inflation, prior to March, however the summer sales figures are exceeding inflation.

The only thing I have found is that the increase may be accounted for in higher utility bills?!?

Even the preliminary retail report for August is positive. I cannot believe that at all. Stores were shuttered all along the east coast.

As far as the "credit card theory", It may be accurate, however, it does not hold to the current report.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/.....9/Current/

Revolving credit is down 5.4% No Plastic magic for the economy.

Non-revolving is up 12 %
I can only assume there has been a large increase in mobile homes and trailers to move them with?



Question: Where do you think the increased Gold and silver margins have the most effect on "borrowed money" i.e.
Could the gold market margin loans really be that large to affect the overall Non-revolving increases?

_________________
“Debt and deficits are not inventions of ideology. They are facts of arithmetic.”

– Paul Martin
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Rotag
Wrecking crew


Joined: 01 Nov 2007
Posts: 1722

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2011 1:09 am Reply with quoteBack to top

bdc63 wrote:

how about this as a theory:

consumers and small businesses aren't able to get new credit so they are using their major credit cards for everything (including things like utility bills)
AND
people who stopped making their mortgage payments a year ago but their bank hasn't gotten around to foreclosing yet are spending that "windfall," which should have gone to toward their mortgage payment, at the mall.

the combination of those two things could move the needle on retail sales and credit card expenditures (especially when you consider the low base from the last couple of years that we are comparing it to), but certainly cannot really be looked at as positive trends for the economy.


Two years ago I was at party with some bankers from BAC. I asked: "if you only had a choice to pay credit card bill or mortgage payment what would you pay" Almost everyone said 'mortgage of course, how & why would you ever think differently'. I said then you have not ever really been in the schit. I went on to say I could live for free for years and have ability to put gas in my car as I left town. They had a hard time comprehending that. Now that many of them have their jobs on the line I wonder if they get it now. I would venture to guess they do.

_________________
I hear nothing. I see nothing. I know nothing.

Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:54 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

October Consumer Confidence numbers are out ... not pretty

39.8

Quote:
U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in October to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years as consumers fretted about job and income prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 39.8 from a upwardly revised 46.4 the month before. It was the lowest level since March 2009.

Economists had expected the index to rise to 46.0, according to a Reuters poll. September was originally reported as 45.4.

The present situation index slipped to 26.3 from 33.3, while the expectations index declined to 48.7 from 55.1. The expectations gauge was also at its lowest since March 2009.


_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:05 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I am a consumer. The only condidence that I have is that the gov't will phuck things up more every day forward till it is so phucked up they will need to turn on their own people and suppress the riots and kill the sheeple to maintain power. It is a'coming...

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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