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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 2:10 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

or, as the case may be, lack there of

consumer confidence for July was 59.2
August came in at 44.5 ... the 4th worst rating since the number has been reported

right now the stock market is pretty much shrugging it off, as month end window dressing appears to be ruling the day

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"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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Rotag
Wrecking crew


Joined: 01 Nov 2007
Posts: 1722

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:33 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

exactly.

btw, where the heck is everybody. seesh it is quiet on these boards.

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I hear nothing. I see nothing. I know nothing.

Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 6:11 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Rotag wrote:
btw, where the heck is everybody. seesh it is quiet on these boards.


It is quiet on these boards. I think everybody left when you stopped posting Wink Hope you'll consider joining the conversation again - dreamer and I are getting tired of talking to ourselves.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:11 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I'm here...trying to survive. Been spliiting wood and stacking it getting ready for cold weather. Thank U technology for powered splitters! Greenhouse being shipped and am busy putting in the foundation on the pad I cut and baserocked. Just preparing for the economy to get worse and the mood of the people to follow.

Good o see ya back Rotag...where have U been?...not here.

With consumer confidence down I cannot see the economy turning around anytime soon. The stock market is on its low volume rise courtesty of the Fed and the bernank put...doesn't mean squat. Still all in with PM shares. Wow! Gold up $50+ at one time today. Moves are getting manic.

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

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achtung
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 716
Location: Germany

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 4:01 am Reply with quoteBack to top

In everyones opinion,

How are we to reconcile the low consumer confidence, with the retail numbers being higher for each corresponding month the sentiment gets lower??

Having trouble figuring that one out. Fuel prices YOY are a buck cheaper in some places. So it cannot be inflation.
Commodities in general have been subdued ex. cotton down 40%.

So what is the market telling you?

Are people just upset with the way the country is being run, or the fact that in July/Aug the stock market and investment portfolio's were weak?

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“Debt and deficits are not inventions of ideology. They are facts of arithmetic.”

– Paul Martin
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bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:35 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I don't get the retail sales numbers either.

High unemployment and underemployment, "credit" being taken away from a huge segment of the population, wages stagnant, GDP on the brink of ticking negative ... doesn't add up to higher retail sales.

Having said that though, I do believe that the whole 'debt ceiling' debacle and S&P downgrade probably woke a lot of people up to the trouble this country is in. I suspect that was worth a negative point or two in the consumer confidence number.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
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buyerbeware
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 08 Aug 2007
Posts: 3326
Location: minneapolis

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 12:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

achtung wrote:
In everyones opinion,

How are we to reconcile the low consumer confidence, with the retail numbers being higher for each corresponding month the sentiment gets lower??

Having trouble figuring that one out. Fuel prices YOY are a buck cheaper in some places. So it cannot be inflation.
Commodities in general have been subdued ex. cotton down 40%.

So what is the market telling you?

Are people just upset with the way the country is being run, or the fact that in July/Aug the stock market and investment portfolio's were weak?


With contradictions like this, someone should check the False Modesty Index.

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"My ambition: to strangle the last king with the entrails of the last priest"

Voltaire
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achtung
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 716
Location: Germany

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:11 am Reply with quoteBack to top

BDC, You bring up a good point and similar contradiction with credit.

While we know credit has been pulled back from many people, we also have reports from the "big four" amex visa mc and discover, that have stated credit card use is at a historic high.

Wondering if people who normally would use a Heloc, are switching to plastic, or if the trend is to use major's over store cards? Whichever it is, it still does not make much sense, to me anyway.


Either way, I am sensing something is not right about the retail numbers being reported.

_________________
“Debt and deficits are not inventions of ideology. They are facts of arithmetic.”

– Paul Martin
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achtung
Nitroglycerin


Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 716
Location: Germany

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:14 am Reply with quoteBack to top

buyerbeware wrote:
achtung wrote:
In everyones opinion,

How are we to reconcile the low consumer confidence, with the retail numbers being higher for each corresponding month the sentiment gets lower??

Having trouble figuring that one out. Fuel prices YOY are a buck cheaper in some places. So it cannot be inflation.
Commodities in general have been subdued ex. cotton down 40%.

So what is the market telling you?

Are people just upset with the way the country is being run, or the fact that in July/Aug the stock market and investment portfolio's were weak?


With contradictions like this, someone should check the False Modesty Index.


You may be on to a new index we can follow.

Would have to choose wether or not to include Politicians in the sampling, though. I have never met a modest politician.

_________________
“Debt and deficits are not inventions of ideology. They are facts of arithmetic.”

– Paul Martin
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dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: consumer confidence
PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:37 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The only really thing that I'm sure about is that if the gov't says it's true it is surely a lie.

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There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
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