FAQ  |  Search  |  Memberlist  |  Usergroups   |  Register  |  Profile  |  Log in to check your private messages  |  Log in 

 Anyone have any Dramamine? View next topic
View previous topic



Post new topicReply to topic
Author Message
bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:22 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

... I've got motion sickness from trading these markets today ...

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
View user's profileSend private message
dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:30 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I haven't been trading. I went about all in on the PM stocks w/o stops and I need something to keep me from puking...down roughly about 10%. I suppose I should have, coulda, woulda, if only, maybe waited...Ha Ha. Today I used up the rest of my firepower buying up my favorites to dollar cost average. I have the faith that the paper pushers will lose and the PMs stocks will blast higher...soon. No margin though. All cashola purchases.

The pros will always smash down 1st what they want to buy. I think the big money sees that the jig is about up and will go into PM stocks in size and determination this fall. IMHO.

_________________
There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
View user's profileSend private message
bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:09 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Yeah, the miners just haven't been working yet. I think they will rally HUGE at some point, but it seems like right now everyone wants the physical. You know, if I lived in Italy or Greece or pick-your-PIIG, I think I woud be pretty suspect of "paper" right now too and would be looking to convert everything to physical.

About a month ago I held my nose, sold 75% of my mining stocks, and converted them into GLD (I know, I know). Right now its working, but I really hate being in it, so my trigger finger is ichy.

I made some money on my ultra short ETFS, which are rocking, as you might imagine. But I was also long crude thru yesterday and that was painful.

If S&P really downgrades the US tonight like the rumors are indicating, than Monday should be another crazy day.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
View user's profileSend private message
dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:12 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Crazy indeed. The miners down as well with gold up 50+. Where market will go I dunno but the PPT will rally it this week IMHO. Maybe as soon as Tues when QE3 is announced.

Good call getting into shorts ETFs. I did that a while back and got stopped out and never went back...

I'm kinda in limbo here with my miners down on average 15%. I suppose I'm hoping for the PPT to rally everything and then will put in trailing stops...

Ya just never know when GLD will disconnect from physical and go kablowie.

_________________
There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
View user's profileSend private message
bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2011 8:29 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

dreamer wrote:
Crazy indeed. The miners down as well with gold up 50+. Where market will go I dunno but the PPT will rally it this week IMHO. Maybe as soon as Tues when QE3 is announced.


I agree. They are not going to let this go on much longer without stepping in and trying to do something 'useful'. I sold 30% of my short ETFs on FRI, and another 30% at the close tonight. No use being greedy here.

The miners I hold performed a bit better today then they did FRI -- did you see the same thing? I actually added a bit to my miner exposure as I sold my ETF shorts.

Quote:
Ya just never know when GLD will disconnect from physical and go kablowie.


I know, I know. Its quite literally keeping me up at night - I HATE being in it. But I'm making ridiculous money on it right now. Its like a drug - it keeps calling me back.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
View user's profileSend private message
dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:58 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The miners are doing much better today. Look at Denninger today. He thinks we get some big rallies and then the bad crash stuff happens later.


Quote:
The more-likely path is that these oversold conditions will produce a monstrous reflex move higher. But in doing so those who shorted the market late or who sold out in disgust will both be caught on the wrong side of the move, and once again serious amounts of market liquidity will be destroyed.

No, what I believe is coming is that bounce, and then, some time not far in the future, the next move down is the one that doesn't retrace.

Don't get complacent. It will be easy to do, if I'm right. You'll see 50, even 100 handles go on the S&P and perhaps as much as 500 or more points on the DOW. You'll think "it's over" as there's a relentless climb back from what looks like a date with The Devil.

If you are unprepared for what comes after that you will be wiped out.



So...we might get a good opportunity to short later in Sept or Oct time frame. For sure watching the miners go down with the general market made me remember to always put in trailing stops...DUH!

_________________
There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
View user's profileSend private message
doinloansNM
Cherry Bomb


Joined: 09 Jul 2008
Posts: 158
Location: new mexico

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:39 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

WOW that was a wild ride for today. A 600pt swing. Bernake must have wanted to send a msg to wall street of some stability. This should have a interesting impact on treasuries tomorrow. My gut is saying that long term treasuries will fall, short term will make good gains and gold and other PM will make steady gains for the rest of the week. Oil will drop probably another 5-8 dollars by the end of the week. The DOW will still be a mixed bag for the rest of the week with slight increases till about Thursday and then small decline on Fri. Bank Stocks will remain flat for most of the week with little activity.
View user's profileSend private message
Aaron
A-Bomb


Joined: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 824
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:03 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I talked about this in my podcast with Contrary Investor Cafe this morning (which I will post on the site in a minute). I said the Fed's hand would be forced to "do something" to boost the market. We've seen this movie before.

What happened was exactly what I expected: a soothing remark reinforcing a dovish stance, but nothing concrete in terms of bond buying, yet.

I suspect the market will resume its downtrend, if not outright crashing, in the next few weeks, and Bernanke will be forced into another round of QE before long.

It would be really extraordinary if they just let it tank. Before the era of TARP, I would have said "look out below", but I just don't see it now.
View user's profileSend private message
bdc63
Schumpeter Reincarnate


Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 4392
Location: Maryland

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:08 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Aaron wrote:
I suspect the market will resume its downtrend, if not outright crashing, in the next few weeks, and Bernanke will be forced into another round of QE before long.

It would be really extraordinary if they just let it tank. Before the era of TARP, I would have said "look out below", but I just don't see it now.


Yep, that's pretty much how I see it at this point as well. They couldn't do another TARP with a 10 handle on the DOW and a stock rally the day of the FOMC meeting - you can't blow your wad before the crisis really even begins (and this crisis doesn't "begin" until a country in Europe is on the brink of implosion). Every thousand point down move in the DOW the FED will roll out some new statement to try and calm markets. But they won't put any of their money on the line until the banks are in real trouble again - then it will be whatever it takes.

_________________
"Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and h*ll where they already have it." -- Ronald Reagan
"Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” -J.P. Morgan, testifying to Congress in 1912
View user's profileSend private message
dreamer
Demolition Man


Joined: 09 Aug 2007
Posts: 2101
Location: Northern California

Re: Anyone have any Dramamine?
PostPosted: Wed Aug 10, 2011 2:32 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

We R a bunch of jaded folks...and the gov't made us that way...The gov't and Fed have zero credibility anymore...in fact you know the truth by what they deny.

I'd love to be dictator for a year. Every politician, banker, and lawyer would be offered a choice to do manual labor or get out of the USA taking nothing other than their lives with them.

_________________
There isn't anything so bad that the Government can't make worse...

The 4-functions of government today are the same as a criminal enterprise: Lie, Cheat, Steal, and Kill...
View user's profileSend private message
Display posts from previous:      
Post new topicReply to topic


 Jump to:   


Merge topics 

View next topic
View previous topic
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB 2.0.22-2 (Debian) © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group :: FI Theme :: All times are GMT