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 Home Builder Death Spiral............. View next topic
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Houston Builder
Dyn-o-mite!


Joined: 09 Jan 2009
Posts: 351

Re: Horton's #s impressive....
PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:33 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Houston Builder wrote:
No question that DR will make it - 15% revenue growth and 55% sales growth is real impressive - that means that they are growing by buying new deals at discounted land prices and building cheap houses on cheap, but well located land positions.

I predict they will be bigger than the Pulte-Centex combo by the end of 2010 - who would ever have thought that???

Who will implode first, someone that's profitable like Horton, or Lennar or KB who are still losing money and have 15% and 27% SGA????

http://www.reuters.com/article.....430?rpc=44


I found it interesting to go back in time and see some of the predictions on this site.


I predicted that Horton would be bigger than the Pulte/Centex combo by the end of 2010. Money!!!

The predictions about KB being close to insolvent are also close.

If KB lets Kyle Davison build another Marth Stewart (this is our version of the I phone!!!) community they will be toast. Shocked

Next prediction: Horton will be twice the size of any other builder by 2012.

I also predict that KB will be claim some b.s. energy efficient home is their version of the buggy whip!! Laughing
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EmelioTextevez
Flash in the pan


Joined: 09 Dec 2009
Posts: 37

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:50 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Quote:
If KB lets Kyle Davison build another Marth Stewart (this is our version of the I phone!!!) community they will be toast.

Next prediction: Horton will be twice the size of any other builder by 2012.

I also predict that KB will be claim some b.s. energy efficient home is their version of the buggy whip!!


Look, I think KB is c**p...but you quote the same lines over and over, in numerous posts. It is quite obvious you have some sort of agenda. Think up some new lines dude, your talking points are getting old and tired.
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mikestrong
Cherry Bomb


Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Posts: 118

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:14 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

EmelioTextevez wrote:
Quote:
If KB lets Kyle Davison build another Marth Stewart (this is our version of the I phone!!!) community they will be toast.

Next prediction: Horton will be twice the size of any other builder by 2012.

I also predict that KB will be claim some b.s. energy efficient home is their version of the buggy whip!!


Look, I think KB is c**p...but you quote the same lines over and over, in numerous posts. It is quite obvious you have some sort of agenda. Think up some new lines dude, your talking points are getting old and tired.

He does seem to have an axe to grind. I think KB is c**p to but he harps on them constantly. Hmm.
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Houston Builder
Dyn-o-mite!


Joined: 09 Jan 2009
Posts: 351

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 3:16 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Quote:

He does seem to have an axe to grind. I think KB is c**p to but he harps on them constantly. Hmm.


No axe here - i buy/sell stock and like to compare strategies before making my moves.

When i see the same management team that blew $500MM in Inspirada and gave us Martha Stewart Halfway House Series still making brilliant decisions, I know where to place my bets.....ha, ha, ha Smile
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nattylite
Dud?


Joined: 12 Apr 2011
Posts: 5

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:55 am Reply with quoteBack to top

We have definitely seen a decrease in the amount of people that want to buy home in Florida our home state. A few years ago we were selling homes like hot cakes, now people all seem to be looking for is rental properties. They don't want to commit to a mortgage because there so afraid of losing their jobs.

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Houston Builder
Dyn-o-mite!


Joined: 09 Jan 2009
Posts: 351

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 4:38 am Reply with quoteBack to top

nattylite wrote:
We have definitely seen a decrease in the amount of people that want to buy home in Florida our home state. A few years ago we were selling homes like hot cakes, now people all seem to be looking for is rental properties. They don't want to commit to a mortgage because there so afraid of losing their jobs.


Same here in H Town - the only builders that are trying to sell houses are those with c**p land positions that they are trying to liquidate to survive
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GradyW
Dud?


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
Posts: 5

Re: Home Builder Death Spiral.............
PostPosted: Wed Aug 31, 2011 4:34 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I think we will see more builders continue to go under in the next few years. While the economy seems to be holding if not improving, you still have thousands of foreclosed homes that will keep the prices down. Builders will have a hard time selling when there are foreclosed homes in the same neighborhoods they are building in. [/i]

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Grady - Has anyone used North American to move?
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