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NewHomeDallas
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Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 404

Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 4:44 am Reply with quoteBack to top

2011 was another slow year. There were 13,927 starts. And worse, there are 64,272 developed lots. In the mid 2000s, we started 50,000+ new homes. And with tens of thousands of unsold foreclosed homes, I don't see a total rebound for at least 5 years.
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Houston Builder
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Joined: 09 Jan 2009
Posts: 351

Re: Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:36 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

NewHomeDallas wrote:
2011 was another slow year. There were 13,927 starts. And worse, there are 64,272 developed lots. In the mid 2000s, we started 50,000+ new homes. And with tens of thousands of unsold foreclosed homes, I don't see a total rebound for at least 5 years.


Wow - a 5 year supply of finished lots - that's sobering. That will keep home prices depressed as well since those lots will be heavily discounted.
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NewHomeDallas
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Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 404

Re: Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 11:51 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

It's actually worse. There were 74, 076 developoped lots at the end of 2010. So. only about 8.000 lots were removed from exisiting inventory. At this rate, it's more like 8 years to eliminate the backlog.

I hope you are more correct and sales volume picks up so we only take 4-5 years to bring it down; however, I don't see any true light at the end of the tunnel.
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Houston Builder
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Joined: 09 Jan 2009
Posts: 351

Re: Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:50 am Reply with quoteBack to top

NewHomeDallas wrote:
It's actually worse. There were 74, 076 developoped lots at the end of 2010. So. only about 8.000 lots were removed from exisiting inventory. At this rate, it's more like 8 years to eliminate the backlog.

I hope you are more correct and sales volume picks up so we only take 4-5 years to bring it down; however, I don't see any true light at the end of the tunnel.


Here is the light - rents are up and mortgage rates will be depressed ...good recipe for home sales if we get consumer confidence

(Its nice to have a real home builder thread that doesn't include the Catch 22/Kyle Davison/Martha Stewart=I Phone Lovefest)!
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Floorpop
Dud?


Joined: 26 Nov 2011
Posts: 12
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:55 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I'm currently in a community that drives a lot of local renters due to our price point. We have seen our traffic increase quite a bit over the last few months due to apartment communities increasing their rent. The local apartment communities charge more per month than a person can pay to own their own home.

I'm hopeful for 2012, but you're right, there certainly are a lot of developed home sites sitting on the ground in DFW. And only a small percentage of those homesites are A+ location. So you have lots of Builders sending in LOI's and fighting over a small percentage of the available home ...should be interesting to see how this year unfolds.
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Houston Builder
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Posts: 351

Re: Another Slow Year For New Home Starts in DFW
PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:53 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Floorpop wrote:
I'm currently in a community that drives a lot of local renters due to our price point. We have seen our traffic increase quite a bit over the last few months due to apartment communities increasing their rent. The local apartment communities charge more per month than a person can pay to own their own home.

I'm hopeful for 2012, but you're right, there certainly are a lot of developed home sites sitting on the ground in DFW. And only a small percentage of those homesites are A+ location. So you have lots of Builders sending in LOI's and fighting over a small percentage of the available home ...should be interesting to see how this year unfolds.


seeing the same thing in Houston - good locations are tightening up, slum locations are turning into rental communities. Low interest rates + high rents = end of the slump.
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